Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with soybeans down $.06 – $.18, spot meal up $3 – $4, while soybean oil was 60 – 70 lower. May-23 soybeans broke thru the $15 level while also violating support at its 50 MA and settling right at its 100 MA at $14.92 ½. Next support is $14.77 ½. Argentina’s 3rd preferred currency program details were announced yesterday afternoon. The “soy dollar” program will go into effect this Saturday and run thru May 24th. The preferred exchange rate is 300 pesos per dollar, well above the current market rate of 210. The aggressive approach taken by the Argentine government is the primary reason for the May/July inverse slipping roughly $.10 from its recent peak. Safras & Mercado raised their Brazilian soybean production forecast 2.6 mmt to 155.1 mmt, vs. the USDA at 153 mmt. . They also est. farmers have sold only 44% of their crop, well below the 5-year average of 60%. Dry conditions in Southern Brazil are beneficial to remaining soybean harvest. They also est. farmers have sold only 44% of their crop, well below the 5-year average of 60%. The BAGE kept their Argentine production est. at 25 mmt, vs. USDA 33 mmt. Export sales at only 6 mil. bu. were below expectations. YTD commitments are now down 11% vs. USDA forecast of down 7%.
CORN
Corn prices are down $.03 – $.09 with May-23 violating support at $6.45. Next support is at $6.37. Forecasts for a significant warmup starting this weekend extending thru all of next week with limited rainfall should accelerate Spring plantings by the end of April. Dec-23 closed today at $5.56 ¾, near the lower end of its recent range of $5.50 – $5.75. The BAGE held their Argentine production estimate unchanged at 36 mmt, vs. the USDA at 40 mmt. Decent rains in Central growing areas of Brazil over the next week should keep 2nd crop corn prospects high. Old crop export sales at 49 mil. bu. were decent and in line with expectations. YTD commitments are still down 32% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 25%.
WHEAT
Higher trade early couldn’t hold as wheat prices drifted lower towards the close. Today’s updated GFS 7 day precip map added chances for moisture in dryer areas of the Southern plains. The EU model shows much of the moisture further east leaving the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles along with Western Kansas and Nebraska dry. Forecasts for late next week/weekend will likely determine price direction Sunday night. Egypt’s GASC bought 600k mt of Russian wheat in today’s tender. Half the volume for May 10th – 20th shipment, half for May 21st – 31st. The average price for all 600k tons was $293.40/mt CF. US export sales disappointing at only 7 mil. bu. YTD commitments are down 5% from YA, vs. USDA forecast of down 3%. May-23 KC premium over Chicago reached a new all time high today at $1.95.
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