Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04 ½ -$.07 ½ higher led by new crop. Spreads were mostly weaker. July-25 traded to its highest level in a week with the next overhead resistance at its 100 day MA at $4.72 ½. July corn just below $4.70 would appear historically undervalued given Mch 1st stocks/Sept thru Feb. usage at 96%. Corn plantings in the south have been moving along at a decent pace with TX, LA, MS and AR all coming in above to well above their historical average for the end of March. Heavy rains this week across the Southern Midwest and Ohio valley region will slow early planting operations, and in some areas rains in excess of 8-10” could produce localized flooding and the need to replant. Using yesterday’s USDA acreage data so far just over 2.1 mil. acres have been seeded. EU corn imports for the 24/25 MY as of Mch. 30th at 15.85 mmt are up 13.4% from YA. In Feb-25 there was 421 mil. bu. of corn used in the production of ethanol, slightly above expectations. In addition Jan-25 usage was revised up by nearly 11 mil. bu. bringing YTD usage to 2.755 bil. bu. up 1.3% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up .4%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher with beans up $.19-$.21 closing at session highs, oil surged $.02 ½ per lb. also making new highs late, while meal was down less than $1. Oil spreads surged while bean and meal spreads were mixed. July-25 beans jumped to their highest level since late Feb. with next resistance at the 50 day MA at $10.53. July-25 oil surged to a 6 week high with next resistance the mid-Feb high at 48.69. Wire services are reporting that members of the biofuel industry along with big oil are meeting with EPA officials to discuss bio and renewable diesel blending mandates. Estimated volumes range from 5.5 to 5.75 bil. gallons annually, up from the current mandated level of 3.35 bil. gallons. Yesterday’s EIA report showed combined production of bio and renewable diesel plunged 23% in Jan-25 to 339 mil. gallons and was down 13% YOY. Soybean oil usage plunged 40% to only 654 mil. lbs., the lowest monthly figure in 5 years. Combined bio and renewable diesel capacity has held steady at 6.575 bil. gallons annually for the past 5 months, well above the current mandated blending levels. Spot board crush margins jumped $.07 ½ bu. to $1.30 ½ per bu. a 3 month high, while bean oil PV surged to 44.8%, a 5 month high. EU soybean imports as of Mch. 30th at 10.07 mmt are up 7% YOY. Meal imports at 14 mmt are up 27%. Soybean crush in Feb-25 at 189 mil. bu. was in line with expectations, however below the 193.4 mil. in Feb-24 given the 1 extra day. In the first 6 months of the 24/25 MY cumulative crush has reached 1.232 bil. bu. up 5.3% from YA, in line with the current USDA forecast
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02-$.04 higher in CGO and MGEX while KC futures advanced $.06-$.08. Not much resistance on the charts until the 100 day MA at $5.76 for July-25 CGO and $5.86 ½ for KC. Rains are expected to bring some relief to drought areas in the SW plains improving the HRW wheat crop prospects. Rains and overall coverage is expected to be more scattered for the Northern plains. Beyond this week’s rains a drier outlook is expected for the nation’s midsection with cooler readings in the East, warmer in the west. After the close yesterday several states reported WW ratings. Kansas, by far the largest producing state, saw conditions hold steady at 49% G/E. Ratings dropped in MT, OK, SD and TX while improving in CO and NE. Wire services are reporting that Russia will not accept the US proposal to stop the war in Ukraine citing not enough of their demands have been met. Grain traders in Australia are forecasting this year’s wheat output may only reach 28.6 mmt, down 16% from the previous year’s crop due to drought conditions. EU soft wheat exports at 15.68 mmt as of Mch. 30th are down 36% from YA. Currently US WW production is shaping up to be close to last year’s 1.349 bil. bu. assuming trend line yields at 52 bpa and harvested acres hold near the historical average rate of 78%.
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