Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were up $.06-$.09 however spreads did weakened a touch. Prices jumped across the Ag. space today driven by a collapse in the US $$ along with speculative buying. July-25 has jumped out to a fresh 6 week high as prices creep back toward the $5 level. The corn market has shed a lot of excess speculative length in the past 2 months and appears they are now reloading having been net buyers the past 7 sessions including today. The BAGE reports Argentine harvest advanced only 3% LW to 23% while keeping their production forecast unchanged at 49 mmt, just below the USDA’s 50 mmt est. Global stocks/use among major exporters tightened a bit more in April, down to 7.3%, a touch above the multiyear low of 7.1% in 2020/21. In the near term little to no rain for the plains and WCB will help corn planting get underway.
SOYBEANS
The entire soybean complex was higher today with beans up $.14-$.20 led by new crop, meal was $1-$2 higher while oil surged over $.01 lb. July-25 beans have surged thru MA resistance jumping out to a fresh 6 week high. July-25 meal has jumped out to a 3 week high with the rally pausing near the 50 day MA at $307.80. Meal closed higher every day this week as speculators unwind a portion of their record short position. New high for the week in July-25 oil with next resistance at the April high near $.49 lb. China has raised tariffs on US imports to 125% while indicating they would not match any further increases by Team Trump as US products are already no longer marketable in their country. China’s Minister of Finance stated that any further increases would be a joke and economically meaningless. The USDA announced the sale of 121k mt (4.4 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer, roughly half old crop 24/25 MY and half 25/26 MY. As the US/China trade war heats up, so has China’s purchases of Brazilian soybeans. They have reportedly purchased over 40 cargoes from our SA competitor this week. The more China buys from Brazil, the less Brazil can sell to everyone else. Farmers in Brazil reportedly have already sold over 50% of this year’s harvest, a record high for early April. Yesterday’s export sales report showed outstanding sales of US beans to China/unknown has slipped to 79 mil. bu., still above the 49 mil. from YA. The BAGE shows Argentine soybean harvest is just getting underway with 3% of that crop gathered. This is well below the 11% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 7%.
WHEAT
Futures surged closing near session highs with prices ranging from $.10-$.18 higher. CGO and MGEX futures jumped out to 3 week highs. Next resistance for July-25 CGO is the 100 day MA at $5.73 ¼. Next resistance for July-25 MGEX is the March high just below $6.40. Wire services are also reporting Russia’s winter crops may have experienced hail damage from storms earlier this week.Yesterday’s bearish WASDE report seems like a distant memory. Global stocks/use among major exporters was little changed in yesterday’s WASDE holding at 15.5%, up from 15% YA.
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