Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.05 lower today with old crop futures the leader to the downside. Spreads also weakened. After briefly trading to a fresh 6-week high, July-25 backed off ending a run of 7 consecutive higher closes. The USDA announced the sale of 120k mt (4.7 mil. bu.) of corn to Japan. Export inspections at 72 mil. bu. were above expectations and well above the 47 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast of 2.550 bil. bu. Inspections were the 2nd highest of the MY. YTD inspections at 1.477 bil. are up 31% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 11%. Largest takers were Mexico – 23 mil., Japan – 10.5 mil., Taiwan – 6 mil. and 5 mil. to S. Korea. Money managers were net sellers of just over 3k contracts of corn LW, reducing their long position to 54k contracts.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mostly lower today. Beans were mixed ranging from $.03 lower in old crop to $.03 higher in new crop. Meal was $2-$3 lower while oil fell $.01 per lb. July-25 beans reached a 6 week high before backing up. The 100-day MA at $10.37 ¾ now serves as support. Inside trade for July-25 meal and oil. Spot board crush margins were beat up today falling $.16 to $1.21 ½ per bu. Bean oil PV dipped just over 44%. Tomorrow’s NOPA crush report is expected to show NOPA members processed around 198 mil. bu. of beans in March, which if realized would be a record high for the month and just above the 196.4 mil. in March-24. Oil stocks are expected to jump 7.6% to 1.617 bil. lbs. Pres. Trump’s surprise weekend announcement of a temporary pause to the 145% tariffs on smartphones and other electronics from China provided a boost to US equity markets. Follow up comments from Trump on Truth Social yesterday that “Nobody is getting off the hook” from tariffs continue to add to tariff confusion and market volatility. Forecasts for SA remain mostly favorable. In the US, above normal temperatures will also expand across the central Midwest ahead of late week rains. Export inspections at 20 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and well above the 6 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 1.825 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.547 bil. are up 11% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%. China took only 5 mil. bu. MM’s were net sellers of nearly 21k contracts of soybeans while buying nearly 36k contracts of oil and 3k contracts of meal. Index funds were modest sellers across the entire Ag. space. Chinese customs data show they imported 3.5 mmt of soybeans in March, down 37% from March-24. Total Q1 imports at 17.1 mmt are down 7.9% YOY.
WHEAT
Futures were down $.08-$.13 today with KC futures the leader to the downside. Inside trade for CGO and MGEX futures. MGEX July-25 has found support near its 100-day MA at $6.18 ¾. Pressure developed from improved prospects for rain across the Southern plains over the upcoming Easter weekend. Moisture is needed to improve the HRW crop prospects as drought conditions have expanded in recent weeks. Ahead of the weekend rains, conditions will remain dry with temperatures building to much above normal readings by late this week. Low to mid-90 degree readings as far north as Central KS by Thursday. Export inspections at 22 mil. bu. were above expectations and above the 19 mil. needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast of 820 mil. bu. YTD inspections at 672 mil. are up 14% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. IKAR reported Russian wheat export price fell $1 last week to $250/mt FOB. SovEcon is reporting they exported 450k mt of wheat LW, up 30k from the previous week. They expect total Russian wheat exports for April-25 at only 1.9 mmt, well below the 5 mmt from April-24. Last week MM’s were net buyers of nearly 10k contracts of CGO wheat while selling just over 4k KC futures.
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