Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 higher today with spreads little changed. Inside trade for July-25 futures while Dec-25 jumped out to a 7 week high. US and Japan trade reps are reportedly meeting today to discuss trade relations. Japan is typically the 2nd largest importer of US corn. The US eastern plains and much of the nation’s midsection will see healthy rain over the Easter weekend. Above normal precipitation is expected to hold thru month end. Good rains are seen across Mato Grosso and other top producing states in WC and SC Brazil over the next week keeping yield potential high for their 2nd corn crop. As of April 13th EU corn imports at 16.5 mmt are up 13% from YA. Ethanol production slumped to a 7 month low LW at 1,012 tbd, or 297.5 mil. gallons, down from 300 mil. the previous week, however up 3% YOY. There was 101 mil. bu. used in the production process, or 14.5 mil. bu. per day, below the 14.87 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.50 bil. bu. In the MY to date there has been 3.388 bil. bu. used, or 15.2 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.545 bil. Ethanol stocks slipped to 26.8 mil. barrels, in line with expectations. Implied gasoline use LW rebounded less than 1% to 8.462 tbd, however was still down just over 2% from YA. Export tomorrow are expected to range from 30-70 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was slightly higher across the board with beans up $.03-$.05, meal was $2.50-$3.50 higher while oil was up 15-20 points. While flat price was higher, spreads weakened across the board. July-25 beans bounced off its 100 day MA support overnight while today’s rebound stalled just below this week’s high of $10.59. July-25 meal continues to reject trade below $300 per ton. Inside trade for July-25 bean oil. Spot board crush margins recovered another $.04 ½ today to $1.36 ½ bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 44.4%. Trade war headlines with China were mixed. Beijing indicated they would be willing to negotiate with the US if certain conditions were met. Wire services are reporting China wants more respect from the Trump Administration along with a more consistent position on trade matters and a point person for discussions. US tech. stocks are under pressure following news that Nvidia will take a $5.5 bil. charge in the current quarter for cancelled sales and inventory charges related to its H20 AI accelerators. COFCO is reportedly expanding their grain trading operations in Brazil as the US/Chinese trade war escalates. Wire services are reporting 2 more biodiesel plants in Iowa have been idled due to the unfinalized 45Z federal tax credit policies. This brings the total number of plants in the state being idled to 5, representing roughly a third of the state’s capacity. Brazil’s soybean exports in April are expected to reach 14.5 mmt, just below the 14.7 mmt in Mch-24. EU soybean imports as of April 13th at 10.9 mmt are up 8% over YA. Their meal imports at 14.8 mmt are up 26.5%. US exports sales tomorrow are expected to range from 5-30 mil. bu. of beans, 150-400k tons of meal and 5-40k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Futures were $.02-$.06 higher today in choppy 2 sided trade. The early rally in July-25 MGEX was capped at its 50 day MA. Rains across the Western plains will be closely monitored as recent model runs have reduced coverage. Algeria reportedly bought up to 600k mt of milling wheat in today’s tender. The Ave. price is expected to fall close to $267.50/mt CF with most being sourced from the Black Sea region. Tunisia is tendering for 75k mt of optional origin soft milling wheat for May/June shipment. Offers for this tender close tomorrow. Overnight India’s Govt. estimated their wheat reserves were at a 3 year high at 11.8 mmt, well above the govt. target of 7.5 mmt. EU soft wheat exports at 16.7 mmt are down 35% from YA. Yesterday the chief economist at the BAGE estimated Argentine wheat production will grow to 20.5 mmt in the 25/26 MY, up 2 mmt from YA while noting it could possibly be higher if the recent export tax cut is extended. In Jan-25 this tax was cut to 9.5% from 12%, with the lower tax rate holding thru June. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from (4)-18 mil. bu.
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