Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were mixed and within $.01 of unchanged in choppy 2-sided trade. July-26 held support above this month’s low before settling between its 50 and 100 day MA’s. Plantings in the SE half of the Midwest are moving along at a rapid pace with little activity in the soaked N. Midwest. The average planting pace for Sunday the 19th is 10%. Harvest has reached 25%. DataGrow forecasts Brazil’s ethanol production will increase 5.3 bil. liters in 2026 to 41.6 bil. Much of that growth being fueled by corn-based ethanol, up 3 bil. liters to 12.8 bil. Despite the reopening of the SOH, this will not be a quick fix for the global fertilizer shortages. Damage assessment on port infrastructure will be closely monitored, assuming the ceasefire holds.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the complex with beans $.01-$.03 higher, meal was mixed and within $1 of unchanged while oil was down just over $.01 lb., roughly $.01 off session lows. Bean spreads firmed while product spreads weakened. Today’s recovery in Ag. Space illustrates prices are starting to separate themselves from the day-to-day volatility in the energy markets. Energy prices plunged this AM after the Iranian Foreign Minister declared the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for the duration of the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Spot board crush margins backed up $.18 to $3.12 ½ bu. after reaching a fresh 3 ½ year high yesterday. Bean oil PV slipped to 50.7%. Slowed harvest in Argentina is benefiting US meal demand. The BAGE kept their production forecast steady at 48.5 mmt while reporting harvest at 6%. D4 RIN generation in March surged 35% to 651 mil. suggesting a surge in the production of biodiesel and RD. Census green diesel production from the EPA from Feb-26 is due at the end of the month. The markets attention will gradually shift to Pres. Trump’s meeting in Beijing with Chinese leader Xi. This will likely require their 10% tariff on US imports to be dropped. The 5-year average US planting pace for the 19th is only 5%, a level already surpassed this past week at 6%. US export sales to non-Chinese importers have also slowed in recent weeks.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.07 lower in CGO to $.03 higher in KC. Spreads weakeened. CGO July-26 bounced off its 50-day MA support at $5.92 ¼. Inside trade for KC July-26. KC premium over CGO traded to a new high at $.53 ½ bu. The Western plains and Nebraska continue to miss out on needed precipitation. While drought in HRW areas deepens, SRW areas in drought continue to ease. US WW areas in drought held steady LW at 68% vs. only 34% YA. Crop ratings in KS and the 2nd lowest in the past decade. Spring wheat acres in drought were steady at only 19%.
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