Written Commentary
CORN
Prices drifted back into today’s close finishing steady to $.02 lower. Spreads weakened as well however both July-25 and Dec-25 futures experienced inside trading days. Plantings will remain delayed across the Southern Midwest with renewed flooding concerns with anticipated weekend rains. Better planting opportunities for the WCB. Trade delegates from Japan left the White House yesterday without an announced trade deal, however the Trump Administration maintains their talks were “successful”. Team Trump meets with trade rep’s from Italy today. After the close yesterday the BAGE reported Argentine corn harvest advanced 5% LW to 28% while holding their production forecast unchanged at 49 mmt, just below the USDA at 50 mmt. Export sales at 62 mil. bu. were strong however in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 2.228 bil. are up 27% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 11%. Current commitments represent 87% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 84%. The normal buyers showed up with Mexico buying 16 mil., Spain and Japan – 10 mil., while S. Korea, Colombia and Panama all buying 5-6 mil. Cattle on feed as of April 1st at 98% of YA was in line with expectations. Placements at 105% were above expectations of 103% while marketings at 101% were in line.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans down $.01-$.03, meal was $1 lower while oil was up 25-40 points. Spreads were mixed across the complex. Inside trade for July-25 beans with MA support near $10.40 with resistance at this week’s high of $10.59. Early strength in July-25 meal stalled near its 50 day MA resistance. Early strength in July-25 bean oil took prices to a 2 week high. The BAGE put Argentine soybean harvest at 5%, just below the historical average. They left production unchanged at 48.6 mmt just below the USDA forecast of 49 mmt. Montana Renewable CEO Bruce Fleming is calling for the Trump Administration to raise the mandated blending level for green diesel to 7.3 bil. gallons annually, up from the current 3.35 bil. and also well above 5.25 bil. gallons recently recommended by a group from the biofuel and big oil industries. Current capacity is the US has held at just below 6.6 bil. gallons annually for the past several months. 2 more biodiesel plants in Iowa went idle this week bringing to total to 5. Export sales at 27 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.719 bil. are up 13% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%. Shipments are up 12%. There were combined cancellations of 4 mil. bu. to China/unknown with outstanding sales slipping to 68 mil. Soybean meal sales at 155k tons were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments are up 11% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%. Soybean oil sales at 10k mt (23 mil. lbs.) were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 2.106 bil. lbs. represent 92% of the revised forecast of 2.30 bil. lbs. Abiove raised their 2025 Brazilian export forecast 2.4 mmt to 108.5 mmt citing the US/China trade war. This compares to the USDA forecast for the 24/25 MY of 105.5 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.03 lower to $.03 higher across the 3 classes today. Rain over the next week continue to favor the E. plains and central Midwest. Lighter amounts for the western plains, WCB and northern plains. Spreads weakened in CGO, while firming in KC. Resistance for July-25 CGO is at this month’s high of $5.71, with MA resistance just above that. The early bounce in KC July-25 stalled before testing MA resistance at $5.85 ½. It’s now believed Algeria bought between 600-630k mt of wheat in their recent tender, up from estimates between 570-600k yesterday. Tunisian reportedly bought 75k mt of optional origin milling wheat at an average cost of just under $264/mt CF for May/June shipment. SovEcon raised their 2025 Russian production forecast 1.1 mmt to 79.7 mmt. US exports at 13 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 787 mil. bu. are up 14% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 16%. Commitments represent 96% of the USDA forecast in line with the historical average.
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