Written Commentary
CORN
Prices continue to hold in remarkably well despite all the weakness around it. Old crop finished with gains of $.02-$.03 for the day while new crop was $.01 lower. The midday jump in corn prices likely due to Pres. Trump’s post on Truth Social indicating leaders of Vietnam have been in contact wanting to negotiate new trade terms to avoid costly tariffs. In and of itself not a big deal, Vietnam doesn’t sit in the top 10 of US corn buyers. So far in the 24/25 MY they have bought 27.5 mil. bu. with all but 3 mil. having been shipped. Next resistance for July-25 is at the 100 day MA at $4.72 ½. More heavy rains for the southern Midwest and Ohio Valley region overnight with some areas in Kentucky picking up nearly half a foot of rain. Planting delays will be widespread with some areas impacted by localized flooding needing to replant. By early next week a much-needed drying trend will develop. Temperatures to remain below normal in the east, above normal in the west. Warmer temps are expected to start sliding east into the central Midwest by middle of next week. Harvest in Argentina should be picking up with a dryer outlook over the next week. That wasn’t the case last week as corn harvest advanced only 1% to 20% complete as reported by the BAGE. They kept their production forecasts unchanged at 49 mmt for corn and 48.6 mmt for soybeans, which are both just slightly below the USDA est.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply lower across the complex with beans down $.31-$.35, meal was off $5, while oil was 120-135 lower. Global recessionary fears along with plunging equity markets has triggered a broad based commodity selloff. Overnight China announced they would impose an additional 34% tariff on US imports, effective April 10th, this in response to the Trump Administrations 34% reciprocal tariffs announced Wednesday. July-25 beans closed back $10 for the first time since Dec-24. July-25 meal has slipped to a new contract low, next support at $278.50. July-25 bean oil bounced nicely off its 50 day MA at 45.19. Spot board crush margins jumped another dime today $1.50 bu. a 5 month high, while bean oil PV slipped to 44.7%. Vietnam is the 9th largest buyer of US soybeans for the current 24/25 MY having purchased 32.5 mil. bu., all but 2 mil. have been shipped. Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed there is 96 mil. bu. of outstanding soybean sales to China/unknown. Despite Pres. Trump’s comments, the swift plunge in the equity markets has got to be troublesome. On the other side how long can the Chinese economy hold up if exports to the US slow to a trickle? Pressure is mounting on both sides to get together and hammer out some sort of an agreement, something both sides can come away claiming some sort of a win. USDA WASDE report next Thursday. Maybe we can focus away from tariffs news, if only briefly?
WHEAT
Prices were $.07-$.12 lower today with KC futures the leader to the downside. All 3 classes are holding just above their respective contract lows. Early strength in KC July was capped right at its 100 day MA. Some areas of W. Kansas picked up some beneficial rains the past 24 hours bringing short term and modest relief from drought. By early next week conditions in the southern plains will be shifting to a much warmer/dryer outlook into mid-April. Ukraine’s grain exports for the 24/25 MY have reached 33 mmt, down 8.4% from YA. Wheat exports at 13.2 mmt are down nearly 7%. Sec. of State Rubio has told a top Russian envoy visiting Washington DC the US wants an answer soon whether Russia is committed to peace with Ukraine. The Trump Administration is becoming increasingly frustrated over slowing peace talks for the war just over 3 years old.
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