Written Commentary
CORN
Prices ranged from $.01 lower in new crop to $.04 higher in old crop. Spreads rallied despite today being the first day of the Goldman roll. July-25 traded to a fresh 2 week high, briefly piercing its 100 day MA at $4.73. Trade across the Ag. space will continue to be very volatile and sensitive to tariff headlines. Heavy rains across the S. Midwest and northern Delta region will lead to planting delay with some areas needing to replant. Export inspections at 62 mil. bu. were above expectations and well above the 44 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 2.450 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.401 bil. are up 30% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%. Largest takers were Mexico – 19 mil., Japan – 15 mil. S. Korea with 8 mil. The CFTC showed money managers and index funds were both net sellers of corn for the 6th consecutive week. The MM position in corn is still long nearly 57k contracts, their smallest long position in 5 months. AgRural reports Brazil’s 1st crop corn harvest has reached 88%, vs. 85% YA.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans ranging from up $.06 in old crop to down $.04 in new crop, meal rallied late closing $4-$5 higher, while oil was off 70-90 points, largely in sympathy with lower energy prices. Beans spreads firmed across the complex. July-25 beans traded to a fresh 4 month low however also rejected a recovery back over $10 bu. Inside trade for July-25 meal, holding above Friday’s contract low. Spot board crush margins slipped $.02 to $1.48 per bu. with bean oil PV dipping to 43.9%. Cooler temperatures with light areas of frost this weekend in Argentina, although not believed to have damaged later maturing crop. Light rains developed over the EC growing areas. Most of Brazil’s 2nd corn crop areas will see a mix of rain and sunshine over the next 10 days to 2 weeks. Export inspections at 29.5 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations and well above the 7 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 1.825 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.527 bil. are up 11% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 8%. China took nearly 13 mil. MM’s were net buyers of just over 13k contracts of beans and nearly 39k contracts of bean oil. They were net sellers of nearly 17k contracts of soybean meal extending their short position to a record of nearly 101k contracts. AgRural reports Brazil’s soybean harvest has reached 87%, vs. 78% YA
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02-$.09 higher today with KC futures bringing up the rear. temperatures across much of the plain states dipped below 20 degrees this past weekend. While widespread damage was unlikely, these temperatures are certainly not good for the winter wheat crop as it comes out of dormancy. Forecasts for the S. plains remain largely void of precipitation over the next week as temperatures gradually warm to above normal readings by midweek. Export inspections at 12 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and below the 21 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. Last week’s inspections were revised up 2 mil. bringing YTD inspections to 650 mil. up 15% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 18%. MM’s were net sellers of just over 19k contracts of CGO wheat extending their short position to 112k contracts, the largest since Dec-23. They were also net sellers of nearly 5k MGEX and a couple hundred KC futures extending their short position across all 3 classes to just over 186k contracts, also the highest since Dec-23. Winter wheat ratings came in at 48% G/E, exactly in line with our expectations. 5% of the crop is headed vs. 6% YA. Spring wheat plantings are being reported at 3%, in line with YA and the 5-year Ave.
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