Written Commentary
CORN
Prices ranged from $.02 lower to $.04 ½ higher led by old crop. Spreads continue to firm despite today being day 2 of the Goldman roll. July-25 traded to a fresh 2 week high while closing above its 100 day MA at $4.73 ¼. The July/Dec spread traded back up to a $.29 inverse and IMO will challenge the Jan. high just above $.43. The USDA announced the sale of 240k mt (9.5 mil. bu.) of corn to Spain. Planting progress reached 2% as of Sunday, vs. 3% YA while in line with the 5-year Ave. States most impacted by LW’s flooding rain saw progress at 31% in AK, 6% in MO, 3% in TN while only 1% in KY. Little progress likely in this region this week while the WCB gets going. China’s Ag. Ministry continues to shift gears in trying to be more food independent by approving 97 GMO corn varieties along with 2 more soybean varieties. EU corn imports for 24/25 as of April 6th at 16.2 mmt are up 12.5% from YA.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans ranging from $.05 lower to $.10 higher with strength limited to old crop. Meal was $1-$3 higher while oil has drifted back 10-20 points. Bean and meal spreads firmed while oil spreads were mixed. July-25 beans closed back above $10. Next major overhead resistance is at the 100 day MA at $10.37 ½ which is also in a gap created by last Thursday’s lower open. July-25 meal traded back above $300 a ton for the 1st time in a week. July-25 oil held support above its 50 day MA at 45.19. Spot board crush margins slipped $.06 to $1.42 per bu. while bean oil PV drifted back to 43.6%. China reportedly bought several cargoes of Brazilian beans triggering a spike in basis. The record amount of Brazilian soybean shipped to China in Q1 will almost certainly extend into record Q2 shipments as well. News during the session that reciprocal tariffs, including 104% on Chinese imports, will take effect at 12:01 AM EST took all the wind out of the early surge on Wall Street. Wire services have reported that Pres. Trump has instructed his trade team to create “tailor made” deals for the nearly 70 countries that have pursued trade talks. Reciprocal tariffs will be applied while these negotiations take place. US biofuel manufacturers and big oil have reportedly recommended the EPA mandate biomass diesel blending increase to 5.25 bil. gallons in 2026. While up from only 3.35 bil. currently, it was below hopes it may increase into the 5.50 – 5.75 bil. gallon range. Mandates remains well below current capacity of 6.575 bil. gallons. A few states have reported planting progress with LA and AK leading the way with 11% of the crop seeded. The recent closure of Argentine crusher Vicentin, accounts for roughly 9% crush capacity for the world’s leading exporter of meal and oil, has allowed domestic crush margins to reach a 5 month high recently at $1.50 bu. EU soybean imports at 10.3 mmt are 4% above YA. Meal imports at 14.4 mmt are up 26%.
WHEAT
Prices were higher across all 3 classes with gains ranging from $.02-$.07. July-25 CGO briefly traded to a 2 week high before backing up. The early jump in July-25 MGEX stalled just below its 100 day MA at $6.18 ¼. US winter wheat ratings at 48% G/E were in line with our expectations and down from 54% YA. 21% of the crop is in P/VP condition vs. only 12% YA. Ratings in KS did show modest improvement with 51% of the crop rated G/E, up 2% for the week. 17% of the KS crop was rated P/VP, unchanged for the week. 5% of the crop is headed, vs. 6% YA. Spring wheat plantings have reached 3%, in line with YA and the 5-year Ave. Jordan reportedly bought 60k mt of optional origin wheat paying $62/mt CF for Aug. shipment. EU soft wheat exports at 16.4 mmt are down 34% from YA. Wires service reporting that frost and hail damage will hurt wheat production in Russia’s 3rd largest wheat producing region of Stacropol.
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