Written Commentary
CORN
Prices ranged from $.01 lower to $.02 higher today in two-sided trade. Spreads also weakened. Near-term resistance for Dec-25 rests at $4.11. Reports from the ProFarmer crop tour show strong yield potential in SD on the western leg of the tour, while dry conditions in IN/OH along with some reporting pollination issues from the midsummer heat are being reported in the east. Export inspections at 41 mil. bu., were at the low end of expectations and below the 53 mil. bu. needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 2.820 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 2.528 bil. are up 28% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 25%. The USDA also announced the sale of 124k mt (5 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. Money managers were net sellers of only 2,364 contracts in the week ended Tues. Aug. 12th extending their short position to 176k, much less than expectations of nearly 200k. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop 24/25 harvest has reached 94% as of last Thursday, while planting progress for the 2025/26 crop reach nearly 2%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were little changed and mixed across the complex with beans down $.01-$.02, meal was off $3 while bean oil was up 10-20 points. Beans and oil spreads were mixed while meal spreads weakened. Near term resistance for Nov-25 soybean is at last week’s high at $10.49 ¼. Support is at the 100 day MA at $10.26. The 50-day MA at 53.56 capped today’s rebound in Sept-25 bean oil. Sept-25 meal violated support at its 50 day MA at $280.80. Spot board crush margins slipped another $.04 ½ to $1.82 bu. while bean oil PV improved to 48.7%. New crop margins slipped $.03 ½ to $1.87 ½. Export inspections at 17 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the 13 mil. needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 1.875 bil. YTD inspections at 1.796 bil. are up 12% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 11%. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s were net buyers of nearly 31k soybeans, just over 24k meal while selling 10.5k contracts of soybean oil. Their short position in soybeans was trimmed to 35k, 109k in meal while their long position in oil dropped to 44.4k. With soybean plantings ready to kick-off next month in Brazil, a major state run lender Banco do Brasil is reporting defaults on agribusiness loans have risen to 3.5% in Q2, up from 3% the previous quarter and well above the 1.3% a year ago. As of this writing, talks appeared to have gone much better than Zelensky’s last visit to the Oval Office in Feb-25. While territory was discussed in today’s meeting, no specifics were provided. Pres. Trump did indicate the US would support Europe in providing security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace deal with Russia, something that Trump claims Putin is willing to accept. Next step is a trilateral meeting that would include Putin.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from steady to $.03 lower across the three classes. Sept-25 CGO matched LW’s contract low however continues to hold support just above $5.00. Same story for Sept-25 KC. New contract low for Sept-25 MIAX. Export inspections at 15 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and below the 17 mil. needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 1.875 bil. YTD inspections at 177 mil. bu. are up 4% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 6%. SovEcon expects Russia’s grain exports will rebound to 4.5 mmt, up from only 2.9 mmt in July. IKAR raised their Russian production forecast 1 mmt to 85.5 mmt, above the USDA forecast of 83.5 mmt. IKAR also raised their export forecast to 42.5 mmt, well above the USDA at 39 mmt. Egypt’s Ag. Ministry has reportedly purchased 4 mmt of wheat from local harvest since April-25.
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