Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.04 lower today with spreads finishing mixed. An inside day for Dec-25 with near term resistance at $4.11 and support at the CL of $3.92. Crop ratings slipped 1% to 71% G/E in line with expectations. Overall ratings remain the highest since 2016. With updated acres and conditions my model is forecasting an average US yield of 185.8 bpa with production at 16.480 bil. below the USDA production at 16.742 bil. 72% is in the dough stage, 27% is in the dent stage both in line with recent history. The PF crop tour is forecasting average yields in SD at 174.2 bpa, well above their 2024 est. of 156.5 bpa and above the USDA forecast of 168 bpa. They peg OH at 185.7 bpa, while above YA at 183.3 bpa however well below the USDA Aug-25 forecast of 196 bpa. Today’s tour is uncovering pollination issues across IN, likely due to lack of overnight cooling in mid-summer, while in NE participants are seeing yields up roughly 1% from YA. Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his US corn yield 1 bpa to 184 bpa while also raising his Brazilian production forecast 2 mmt to 136 mmt, above the USDA at 132 mmt. Since 2000 a new record high corn yield has been set 9 times. In none of the previous 9 years was the highest yield posted in the month of August or Sept. 5 times the highest yield was posted in Nov or final. 3 times the highest yield was set in July, with 1 year in October.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower across the complex with beans down $.06-$.08, meal rallied late closing $6-$8 higher, while oil was down $.01 ½ per lb. Bean and oil spreads eased while meal spreads rallied. Nov-25 beans continue to consolidate between LW’s high at $10.49 ¼ and its 100 day MA support at $10.26. Next support for Sep-25 oil is the 100 day MA just below $.51 lbs. Next resistance for Sept-25 meal is the 100 day MA at $291. Spot board crush margins firmed $.06 to $1.88 bu. with bean oil PV slipping to a 2 month low at 47.3%. News that the USDA will no longer support solar and wind projects on production farmland stooked fears the Trump Administration may not be as supportive of green diesel as initially believed. The EPA’s final ruling on small refinery exceptions (SRE) isn’t expected until Oct. 31st. China’s purchase of canola from Australia for the first time in 5 years also contributing to the bearish sentiment. Crop conditions held steady at 68% G/E. Overall ratings remain the highest since 2020. Updated acres and conditions would suggest and average yield at 53.6 bpa and production of 4.295 bil. very much in line with the USDA forecast of 4.292 bil. 82% of the crop is setting pods, in line with recent history. Pods counts in both SD and OH were above both YA and their 3-year Ave. The USDA announced the sale of 228.6k mt (10 mil. bu.) of soybeans to Mexico. EU soybean imports for the 25/26 MY as of Aug. 17th at 1.74 mmt are down 6.5% from YA. Their meal imports at 2.44 mmt are also off 6.5% YOY. Reports today from NE show pod counts down significantly from YA. Since 2000 record soybean yields have been set only 6 times and not since 2016. Every year the highest yield was posted in either November or final.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.01 higher in MIAX futures to $.07 lower in KC. New contracts lows across the board for the Sept-25 contracts. Spot CGO dipped below $5.00 and to its lowest level in nearly a year for the spot contracts. Spot KC also dipped under $5.00 however held support above its Spring low. Accommodations for a peace meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy appear to be in the works. In addition, a White House spokesperson stated Pres. Trump has directed his national security team to work with the EU in helping coordinate security guarantees for Ukraine. Spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 50% G/E, in line with expectations. Overall ratings are below YA and now slightly above the 5-year Ave. Harvest advanced 20% to 36% complete matching the 5-year Ave. however well above expectations. Winter wheat harvest advanced 4% to 94% complete. EU soft wheat exports at only 1.78 mmt as of Aug. 17th are less than half of YA. Jordan reportedly passed on their recent tender for 120k mt of wheat.
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