Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01 higher today in 2 sided trade. Dec-25 traded to a new high for the month, however stalled out before reaching the 50 day MA resistance at $4.17 ½. While the Sept/Dec spread narrowed a touch, back spreads softened. Prices drew support from the lower than expected production forecast on Friday from Pro Farmer. They est. US corn production at 16.204 bil. bu. down 538 mil. from the USDA est. in Aug. Their yield at 182.7 bpa, while still a record high, is well below the USDA forecast of 188.8 bpa. Export inspections bounced back to 51 mil. bu., in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 2.738 bil. are up 28% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 25%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 21 mil. and Japan – 15 mil. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s were net buyer of over 31k contracts of corn, reducing their net short position to 145k contracts. MARS, a European Ag. consulting group, is forecasting 2025 EU corn yields at 6.93 mt/HA, down from last month’s forecast of 7.18 mt/HA and well below the USDA yield estimate of 7.21 mt/HA. AgRural is reporting Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest has reached 98% while the 1st crop for 25/26 MY is 3.2% planted vs. 4.2% YA. I’m looking for a 1% drop in crop conditions to 70% G/E.
SOYBEANS
With the exception of Oct-25 soybean meal, prices were lower across the complex. Beans were down $.07-$.11, meal was within a $1 of unchanged while oil was down 40-50 points. Spreads were mostly lower across the complex. Nearby meal spreads weakened after trading to fresh highs in early action. Meal delivery registrations with the CME were down another 603 contracts from Friday, triggering the initial surge. Near term resistance for Nov-25 beans is LW’s high at $10.62 ¾ with support at the 100 day MA at $10.27. Sept-25 meal once again rejected intraday trade over $300 ton. Inside trade for Sept-25 oil. Spot crush margins firmed up $.03 to $2.22 ½ per bu. while soybean oil PV held steady at 48%. US/Chinese trade tensions flared up over the weekend as China’s ambassador to the US stated US protectionism is rampant, casting a shadow over US/China cooperation. He also suggested the US farmer should not bear the cost of a trade war. Today Pres. Trump stated China must give us magnets, or risk facing 200% tariffs. He also claimed Chinese leader Xi wants him to come to China. Export inspections at 14 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 1.811 bil. are up 11.5% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 10.6%. MM’s were net buyers of just over 35k contracts of soybeans, just over 24k contracts of meal while net sellers of 13k bean oil. Something big oil will likely challenge in court.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.01 lower in spot KC to $.02 ½ higher in CGO and MIAX futures. Spreads were mixed. US weather remains crop friendly with much of the Midwest remaining cool and dry the last week of Aug. Rains this week of 1-3” are expected to stretch across the central plains south and east into the Delta and Gulf coast region. Export inspections at 35 mil. bu. were well above expectations of 12-20 mil. and the highest in years. YTD inspections at 212 mil. are up 11% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 6%. IKAR is reporting Russia’s export price for wheat ended last week at $235/mt FOB, down $3.50 from the previous week. They attributed the price weakness to light demand from importers and seasonal supply pressure. MARS estimates EU soft wheat yields at 6.15 mt/HA, up from last month’s forecast of 6.09 mt/HA. Pres. Trump this AM stated Putin and Zelensky should meet while claiming there will be consequences for Russia if they don’t. He mentioned he’d give it another week or 2 before stepping in. MM’s were net seller of nearly 9k contracts of CGO wheat while selling roughly 1k in KC and MIAX combined.
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