Written Commentary
CORN
CH ended lower and near 4.76. There was no real new news except market awaits Brazil rainfall. Some are focused on rains due Jan 1-6. Parts of C/N Brazil could see stress until then. USD dropped to key support. Drop below support could accelerate USD losses. Some look for USDA to Increase their est of US 2023/24 carryout from 2,130 to 2,290 due to higher est of US 2023 crop. Since the peak in Oct,2023 OI near 1,451 mil contracts corn open interest dropped to 1,248. This could suggest a negative bias. USDA est US 2023/24 ethanol use at 5,400 mil bu vs 5,325 last year. Feed and residual is est at 5,650 vs 5,549 last year. Export are est near 2,000 mil bu vs USDA 2,100.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended slightly higher. Soyoil gained on soymeal. There were no new US soybean sales to China or unknown. There was no real new news except market awaits Brazil rainfall. Some are focused on rains due Jan 1-6. Parts of C/N Brazil could see stress until then. USD dropped to key support. Drop below support could accelerate USD losses. Some look for USDA to Increase their est of US 2023/24 carryout from 245 to 262 due to higher est of US 2023 crop. Since the peak in Oct, 2023 OI near 845 thousand contracts soybean open interest dropped to 637. This could suggest a negative bias. USDA est US 2023/24 crush at 2,300 mil bu vs 2,212 last year. Exports are est near 1,755 mil bu vs USDA 1,992.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. WH ended down 13 cents and near 6.23. KWH ended down 6 cents and near 6.36. MWH down 7 cents and near 7.21. Jordan is tendering for optional origin milling wheat. Russian Dec wheat exports improved slightly vs November but were below last year. The slow 2nd quarter of the marketing year takes the cumulative exports to below that of last season for the first time, and down 9%. The Red Sea remains vulnerable with broadening Middle East tensions. Still shipping companies appear to be prepared to use the route for now.
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