Written Commentary
CORN
Corn futures end the year lower. There is concern that there is not enough global weather problems and new US corn export demand to push CH above 4.81. Weekly US ethanol report showed production highest since 2017 and stocks highest since April 2021. Brazil rains are forecasted for dry areas. Dalian corn was higher. Weekly US corn export sales were 1,242 mt vs 1,013 last week. US total commit is near 29.4 mmt vs 21.4 ly. USDA goal is 53.3 mmt vs 42.2 ly. Some est Dec 1 US corn stocks near 12,046 mil bu vs 10,821 last year. Some est US 2023 final corn crop near 15,394 mil bu vs USDA 15,234.
SOYBEANS
SH finished the year below 13.00. Weekly US soybean export sales were 983 mt vs 1,989 last week. Total commit is near 36.3 mmt vs 42.9 ly. USDA goal is 47.7 mmt vs 54.2 ly. There were no new US daily soybean sales announced. Brazil rains are forecasted for dry areas especially. Next weeks amounts could be 1.00-3.00 inches. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Some feel US soybean futures could trend lower in 2024 with US, Brazil and Argentina increasing crush. There is concern that there is not enough global weather problems to push SH above 13.20. Some est Dec 1 US soybean stocks near 3,124 mil bu vs 3,182 last year. Some est US 2023 final soybean crop near 4,164 mil bu vs USDA 4,129.
WHEAT
WH was down 2 cents and near 6.28. KWH was unch and near 6.43. MWH was down 1 cent and near 7.24. Weekly US wheat export sales were 276 mt vs 322 last week. Total commit is 15.1 mmt vs 14.9 ly. USDA goal is 19.7 mmt vs 20.6 ly. Total global trade is est near 207.2 mmt vs 219.5 ly. WH remains in a 6.00-6.50 range. KWH is 15 cents above WH. There is concern that there is not enough global weather problems and new US wheat export demand to push WH above 6.50. Higher Russia supplies limits upside in wheat. This despite escalation in concern over Middle East war expanding to include Iran. Hopes for lower US Dollar and lower interest rates could increase destination buyers more buying power.
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