Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded higher. Talk Omicron virus symptoms are mild triggered new buying across the board. Fact 565 deliverable soybean receipts have been cancelled the past 3 days is also supportive. Drier S Brazil and East Argentina weather pattern is also supportive. Weekly US soybean export sales was near 39 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,365 mil bu vs 1,920 last year. US soybean exports commit is 30 pct behind last year vs USDA est of a 9 pct drop. Informa left 2021 soybean crop near 385 mmt. Brazil 145 mmt vs 138 ly. SF tested 12.49. Some feel firm US domestic basis and drier S Brazil and E Argentina weather could push SF back over 12.50. Slow US soybean exports and concern that USDA could raise US soybean carryout on Dec 9 offers resistance near 13.00.
CORN
Corn futures closed higher. CZ remains firm vs CH. Strong US domestic corn basis due to favorable ethanol margins and slow farmer selling is helping the basis and spreads. Some feel that Nov 30 5.62 could be the low for the remainder of 2021. Funds liquidated longs on fears that spread of Covid virus could slow demand and economic activity. Fact US Fed Chairman is focusing on inflation than accommodation increase fund buying commodities as a hedge against inflation. Drier S Brazil and E Argentina weather pattern is also supportive. Weekly US corn export sales was near 40 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,394 mil bu vs 1,507 last year. Ukraine and Argentina prices remain a discount to US. Informa left 2021 corn crop near 1,210 mmt. Brazil 121 mmt vs 87 ly. US 382 vs 358 ly. Ukraine 41 mmt vs 30 ly. Matif corn futures turned Higher. Some feel lack of imports could reduce EU corn supplies. Dalian corn futures traded higher and near $10.57. China continues to buy Ukraine corn, US sorghum and World feed wheat. Trade continues to monitor Russia and Ukraine tension. Half of Ukraine Army is at the Russian border. Escalation in tension could rally grain prices.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded higher. Less concern about the impact of the new Omicron virus rallied stocks, energies and grains. Higher tide lifts all boats. Some feel fact World wheat exporters end stocks to use ration is record low and increase in World wheat trade offered support. Fact the World wheat importers are not covered and buying hand to mouth helps rally futures. La Nina rains in E Australia and SW Canada and dryness in US plains and Russia is also long term supportive. Weekly US wheat export sales were only 3 mil bu. Total commit is near 525 mil bu vs 679 last year. Informa increase 2021 wheat crop 3 mmt to near 779 mmt. They raised Australia 1.9 mmt and Russia 1.0 mmt. WH is back near 20 day moving ave at 8.20. KWH trade above the 20 day near 8.32 and is back near 8.50. MWH is back above the 20 days near 10.26. 10.65 is next resistance
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