Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 higher today while spreads are mixed. Mch-25 jumped out to a fresh 2 week high however stopped just shy of the late Nov-24 high at $4.42 ¼. Export inspections at 41 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however below the 48 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 2.325 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 478 mil. are up 32% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 1%. APK-Inform raised Ukraine’s 2024 corn production forecast .9 mmt to 24.9 mmt, still below the USDA est. of 26.2 mmt. AgRural est. Brazil’s 1st corn crop is 95% planted. Last week money managers sold just over 9k contracts of corn reducing their long position to just over 88k contracts. For now spot corn remains stuck between $4.20 – $4.50.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower with beans down $.03-$.04, meal was $2 higher while oil was down 15-20. Bean spreads were slightly lower, while product spreads were steady to slightly firmer. Jan-25 beans for now rejected trade above $10 after having been stuck between $9.75 and $10 the past 3 weeks. Inside trade for Jan-25 bean oil as it has bounced off its 100 day MA support at 42.39. The early rebound in Jan-25 meal stopped just shy of LW’s high at $293.70. Early strength in soybeans was likely tied to talk of additional stimulus in China as they continue to try and prop up their economy. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up nearly 3% while the yield on China’s 10 year note fell to an all-time low at 1.93%. Heavy rains in Southern Brazil did cause some flooding in western Parana and Santa Catarina along with NW Rio Grande Do Sul. More rains are expected thru tomorrow before a drier trend develops. Much of Argentina will experience a good mix of rains and sunshine over the next few weeks. Spot board crush margins rebounded $.07 to $1.18 bu. with bean oil PV falling back to 42.5%. Soybean inspections at 60 mil. bu. were a 10 week low however in line with expectations. Last week’s inspections were revised up by 1 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 861 mil. up 19% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%. China took 31 mil. bu. AgRural est. Brazil’s soybean crop is 95% planted. Last week MM’s bought just over 9k beans, 2k meal while selling nearly 14k bean oil.
WHEAT
Prices were $.02-$.06 higher across all 3 classes today, however all well off session highs. Much below normal temperatures are expected for Eastern Ukraine and Southern Russia by next weekend with some snow cover expected to provide protection from the harsh conditions. Export inspections at 8 mil. bu. were below expectations and well below the 15 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 825 mil. bu. YTD inspections at 412 mil. are up 30% from YA, vs. the USDA of up 17%. Last week MM’s sold just over 10k contracts of Chicago wheat, nearly 8k KC and nearly 2k in MGEX. The MM short position in MGEX wheat has swelled to a new record at just over 32k contracts. IKAR analysts report Russia wheat prices for export ended last week at $228/mt FOB, up $2 from the previous week. SovEcon report Russia exported 1.08 mmt of grain LW, which included 1.01 mmt of wheat well above the previous week’s grain exports of 630k mt and 550k mt of wheat. The head of Russia’s grain export union indicates they will continue to ship grain to Syria while working with rebel leaders to resolve previous payment and debt issues. Wire services also report Russia has begun to ship volumes of the 430k mt wheat purchased by Egypt’s GASC in direct Govt. negotiations from Sept.
All charts provided by QST.
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