Written Commentary
CORN
Futures closed with gains of $.03-$.05 in volatile two-sided trade. Spreads also firmed. Mch-26 traded to a 3 weeks with next resistance at the Nov-25 high of $4.57. Feed grains tacked “war premium” today following Russian Pres. Putin threat to increase strikes on Ukrainian vessels and shipping facilities while also vowing to take measures against tankers of countries that help Ukraine. Deliveries against Dec-25 ticked up to 76 contracts. StoneX and Dr. Michael Cordonnier both lowered their Brazilian production this week to 134.4 mmt and 138 mmt respectively, which are still well above the USDA est. of 131 mmt. EU imports for 25/26 MY as of Nov. 28th at 6.74 mmt are down 22% from YA. Export inspections to date would suggest the USDA record export forecast is still too low. December USDA WASDE reports have historically been uneventful until last year when the USDA cut ending stocks by 200 mil. bu. largely due to a 150 mil. bu. increase in export demand.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans $.02-$.03 lower closing near session lows, meal was down $2-$3 while oil was up 30-35 points. Spreads weakened across the complex. Jan-26 beans closed below its 50 day MA for the first time in 2 months. Next support is $11.13 ¼. Jan-26 meal fell to a 5 week low. Jan-26 bean oil jumped out to a 2 ½ month high before backing up a touch. There were no deliveries against Dec-25 meal, while 123 against Dec-25 oil. Spot board crush margins held steady at $1.40 per bu. while bean oil PV jumped out to a 6 week high at 45.8%. Much needed rain is expected for central and northern growing areas of Brazil over the next 7 days. That said, however, there have been no changes to the US soybean ending stocks forecast in the December WASDE report since 2020. StoneX and Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered their Brazilian production forecasts this week. Dr. Cordonnier at 176 mmt while StoneX at 177.2 mmt, both just above the USDA record forecast of 175. EU soybean imports as of Nov. 28th for the 25/26 MY at 4.97 mmt are down 13.6% YOY. Their meal imports at 7.46 mmt are down 10.4%.
WHEAT
All three classes shook off early weakness to close $.05-$.07 higher. Neither Mch-26 CGO or KC was able to form an outside day up while stalling just below key MA resistance. Spreads in CGO firmed while mixed in KC. Still no deliveries against CGO Dec-25 futures, MIAX also held at zero while KC ticked up to 7 contracts. US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Pres. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met today with Russia’s Pres. Putin in Moscow to discuss the US peace plan that has already raised objections from both sides. Control over Ukrainian territory, security guarantees and the size of Ukraine’s post-war military remain core topics of discussion. Algeria and Thailand are tendering for wheat later this week. Jordan passed on making any purchases in their recent 120k mt tender while a Korean feed group reportedly bought 65k mt of feed wheat in a snap tender at $261.65/mt for April-26 shipment. EU soft wheat exports as of Nov. 28th at 9.66 mmt are down 4.7% from YA. While Argentina wheat harvest will likely show record production and yields, low protein level will place a large portion of the crop as feed quality.
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