Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 higher with spreads slightly firmer. Mch-26 futures traded above LW’s highs however remain in a $4.35-$4.55 range. MM’s sold just over 13,500 contracts in the week ended Dec. 9th cutting their long position to just under 10k contract. Export sales for the week ended Dec. 4th at 58 mil. bu. brought YTD commitments to 1.804 bil. bu. up 30% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 12%. Export inspections at 69 mil. bu. were in line expectations and above the 61 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 955 mil. are up 68% from YA. Noted buyers were Mexico – 21 mil., Korea – 16 mil. while Japan and Spain took 9-10 mil. each. Friday’s COF data showed cattle numbers down 2% from YA, however placements at 11% below YA vs. expectations of down only 8%. The USDA’s feed usage forecast at 6.1 bil. bu. up 11.6% YOY, is at least 100-200 mil. bu. too high. US exports likely to remain strong with US competitively prices into 2nd Qtr. of 2026.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.04-$.05, meal was $1 higher while oil was up 65 points. Bean spreads weakened while product spreads were mixed. Jan-26 ended a run of 6 consecutive lower closes. After early volatility Jan-26 meal consolidated near its 100 day MA. Near-term resistance for Jan-26 oil is at 48.82. Spot board crush margins improved $.05 to $1.37 ½ bu. with bean oil PV inching up to 44.8%. In the week ended Dec. 9th MM’s sold just over 35k contracts of soybeans, nearly 5k oil and just over 29K meal. Export sales for the week ended Dec. 4th at 57 mil. brought YTD commitments to 859 mil. bu. down 37% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 13%. Sales to China were 37 mil. The USDA also made another flash announcements of 396k mt (14.5 mil. bu.) to China. Roughly 12 mil. was for 2025/26 MY with balance for 26/27. Meal sales at 276k tons brought YTD commitments to 7,868k tons up 6% YOY vs. the USDA export forecast of up 5%. Bean oil sales at 3 mil. lbs. bring commitments to 441 mil. down 52% YOY vs. USDA down 64%. Known sales to China thru Dec. 4th plus announced flash sales take total purchases to nearly 6 mmt. Trade sources feel actual purchases are closer to 8 mmt when you add in smaller sales and some of the announced sales to unknown. Export inspections at 32 mil. bu. were in line with expectations bringing YTD inspections to 536 mil. down 46% from YA. AgRural raised their Brazilian production forecast 1.9 mmt to 180.4 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 175 mmt. They also report harvest has begun on earliest planted fields in Mato Grosso and Parana.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02-$.06 higher across the 3 classes. Heightened tensions in the Black Sea region along with off the coast of Venezuela fueled the injection of war premium. CGO and KC futures were the leaders to the upside. For the week ended Dec. 9th MM’s sold just over 2k contracts of CGO futures while lite buyers in both KC and MIAX. The combined short position across the 3 classes holds at just over 80k contracts. Export sales week ended Dec. 4th at 14 mil. bu. brought YTD commitments to 710 mil. bu. up 23% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Export inspections at 23 mil. bu. were above expectations and above the 15.5 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 542 mil. bu. are up 23% YOY. A South Korean feed group reportedly bought 65k mt of feed wheat at $253/mt CF for June shipment. Algeria is seeking 50k mt of durum in a tender that closes Tues. or Wed.
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