Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.04 higher as the lower 1 day, up the next trend this week continues. Spreads firmed. Mch-26 futures are back above its 50 day MA while holding in a $4.35-$4.55 range. Deliveries against Dec-25 held at 4 contracts. Exports at 79 mil. bu. brought YTD sales to 1.471 bil. bu. up 31% from YA, vs. the USDA export forecast of up 9%. Shipments as of Oct. 30th at 481 mil. were up 59% YOY. Noted buyers that week were Mexico – 21 mil., Japan – 16.5 mil. and Korea with 14 mil. In addition the USDA announced fresh sales of 101k (4 mil. bu.) of corn to Colombia and 392.5k mt (15.5 mil.) to Mexico.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher with beans up $.02-$.04, meal was mixed while oil was up 10-20 points. Bean and oil spreads firmed while meal spreads were mixed. Jan-26 beans rejected trade into new lows for the week with next resistance at the 50 day MA at $11.28. Jan-26 meal closed well off session highs. Jan-26 bean oil has support at its 50 day MA at 50.91 and resistance at the 100 day MA at 52.16. There were zero deliveries against Dec-25 meal with 95 against Dec-25 oil. While US Treasury Sec. Bessent insists China will buy 12 mmt of US soybeans by the end of Feb-26, there were once again no flash sales announced this AM by the USDA. Announced sales since late Oct-25 to China remain at 2.25 mmt. Meanwhile Chinese crushers continue to buy Brazil soybeans for Q1 2026 as their FOB offers remain roughly $.60 bu. below US offers. Spot board crush margins slipped $.02 ½ to $1.35 bu. with bean oil PV holding at 45.4%. Soybean exports at 46 mil. brought YTD commitments to 632 mil. bu. down 38% from YA vs. the current USDA forecast of down 13%. The first sale of 232k mt (8.5 mil. bu.) to China showed up in this week’s data. Shipments as of Oct. 30th at 278 mil. bu. are down 39% YOY.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.03 lower in MIAX to $.05 higher in KC with all 3 classes experiencing 2 sided trade. Mch-26 CGO has resistance at its 100 day MA at $5.44 ¾ while KC and MIAX Mch-26 contracts have both topped out at their respective 50 day MA’s. Exports at 19 mil. bu. brought YTD commitments to 617 mil. bu. up 22% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Shipments as of Oct. 30th at 425 mil. bu. were up 23% YOY. Algeria’s recent purchase topped out near 900k mt with the cost reportedly near $256/mt CF. Nearly all is believed to have been sourced from the Black Sea region with most from Russia. Thailand reportedly purchased 240k mt of optional origin feed wheat at just over $250/mt CF. Stats Canada raised their 25/26 all wheat production est. 3.3 mmt to 39.95 mmt, above expectations and 11% above last year’s record crop. By class production has spring wheat at 29.26 mmt, durum 7.14 and winter wheat 3.56.
Charts provided by QST.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
