Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were steady to $.03 higher today led by old crop. Spreads were slightly higher. Old crop corn jumped out to fresh 9 month highs. Mch-25 came within ¼ cent of trading $5.00 before drifting back. Spillover strength from surging wheat prices supported corn. A sharply lower US $$$ dollar also contributed to the higher prices. The greenback traded to a 2 month low. The Brazilian Real has rallied to a 4 month high. No change in Brazil as a dryer outlook across the central agricultural areas the next week to 10 days will enable harvest and 2nd crop corn plantings to advance quickly. Showers will continue for the deep south in RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana. After this weekend much of Mato Grosso will remain dry for the next week to 10 days. The USDA announced the sale of 100k (4 mil. bu.) of corn to Colombia. A bipartisan bill was introduced yesterday in the US Senate that would allow the year round sale of E-15 gasoline for the entire country. Late yesterday the BAGE reported corn conditions slipped another 9% to only 16% G/E while 33% of the crop is rated poor/VP up from 26% LW. They held their production forecast unchanged at 49 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 50 mmt and RGE at 46 mmt.
SOYBEANS
Prices are mixed today with beans $.06 higher, meal was up $3 while oil was off 10-20 points. Bean and meal spreads rebounded while oil spreads were slightly weaker. Although Mch-25 beans staged a nice rebound off a test of its 100 day MA yesterday, upside price potential would appear limited with Brazil’s record harvest hitting its stride. Resistance for Mch-25 meal rests at its 50 day MA at $302.20. Mch-25 oil has pulled back after trading to new highs for the week. Spot board crush margins slipped $.01 to $1.21 ¾ with bean oil PV pulling back to 43.8%. The newest “reciprocal” tariffs announced by Pres. Trump yesterday are not expected to be implemented until April 1st allowing countries time to negotiate trade deals. Central and northern areas of Argentina are expected to see heavy rains this weekend before a dry stretch much of next week. The southern half of Buenos Aires and La Pampa will likely see much lighter totals resulting in additional crop stress. The BAGE reports soybean conditions slipped 2% to only 15% G/E while 36% of the crop is rated poor/VP up from 32% LW. They held their production forecast unchanged at 49.6 mmt, vs. the USDA at 49 mmt and RGE at 47.5 mmt. Even with the USDA cutting South American production 3.5 mmt this week, (down 3 Argentina, .5 Paraguay) combined production at 228.7 mmt is up 7.8% from last year’s record production. On Tuesday NOPA will release their monthly crush figures at 11 AM CST. Members are expected to have processed 204.5 mil. bu. in Jan-25, down from the all-time record high of 206.6 mil. in Dec-24. This is well above the 185.8 mil. bu. crushed in Jan-24. Oil stocks are expected to rise just over 4% to 1.289 bil. lbs. however would still be well below the 1.507 bil. lbs in Jan-24.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.17-$.23 higher today with CGO and KC the upside leaders. Mch-25 Chicago traded above $6.00 for the first time in 4 months. Next resistance is $6.19 ½, a 38% retracement from the high last May to the Dec-24 low. Resistance for Mch-25 KC is $6.29 ½. Weather premium was injected over the threat of winterkill with temperatures expected to plunge well below zero as far south as the KS/OK border for several days next week. The northern plains are expected to see temperatures from 20-30 degrees below zero. Much of this week’s snow cover is likely to melt over the next 24 hours with temperatures in the upper 40’s to low 50’s across KS and southern NE. The offer deadline for Saudi Arabia’s 600k mt wheat tender is today, however results are not expected until Monday. The Western Australian Grain Industry Association reports wheat harvest in region at 12.45 mmt was well above the Dec-24 est. of 10.8 mmt. ABARE is expected to update production for all of Australia in early March.
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