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Ag Market View for Feb 8.24


US ending stocks at 2.172 bil. were up 10 mil. bu. from Jan-24 and roughly 40 mil. above expectations.  The only change to the balance sheet was a 10 mil bu cut to FSI usage, not ethanol.  World stocks fell 3 mmt to 322 mmt, slightly below expectations.  Brazilian production was cut 3 mmt to 124 mmt, while their exports were reduced by 2 mmt to 52 mmt, now slightly below the US export forecast.  Argentine production was left unchanged at 55 mmt.  No change to Chinese imports which were left at 23 mmt.  The Ave. Farm price held steady at $4.80 bu.  After making new contract lows in early trade, prices recovered to close $.01 – $.02 lower, perhaps a sign today’s news is already discounted in price. 

US Corn Ending Stocks 2.8.24


US ending stocks rose 35 mil bu to 315 mil. at the very high end of expectations, and vs. the average estimate of unchanged.  The only change to the balance sheet was a 35 mil bu cut to exports.   No changes to either meal or oil.  The ave US Farm price slipped $.10 to $12.65 bu.  Global stocks rose 1.5 mmt to 116 mmt, vs. expectations for a 1.5 mmt decline.  The USDA increased last year’s Brazilian crop another 2 mmt to 162 mmt, which carried right thru to higher ending stocks.  This year’s 2023/24 production was cut only 1 mmt to 156 mmt, above the Conab forecast of 149.4 mmt.  Chinese imports were left unchanged at 102 mmt.  Prices finished the day mixed.  Beans were up $.02 – $.05 with bull spreading noted.  Mch-24 held a test of yesterday’s 8 month low and manage to recover into the close.  Meal was $4 – $5 lower with Mch-24 trading to nearly a 2 year low intraday.  Oil was up 110 – 120 gaining PV as renewable diesel capacity is expected to expand another 1.4 bil. gallons the first half of 2024.  Next resistance for Mch-24 is the 50 day at 48.60.  No change in SA weather as forecasts moving forward remain support for crop development.           

US Soybean Ending Stocks 2.8.24


US wheat ending stocks rose 10 mil. bu. to 658 mil., vs. expectations for no change.  Usage for food was cut by this amount.  HRW and SRW classes rose 5 and 4 mil. bu. respectively.  World stocks fell less than 1 mmt to 259.4 mmt, in line with expectations.  The only noted change in the world balance sheets was a 1 mmt increase in Ukraine’s exports to 15 mmt.  US winter wheat areas in drought fell another 5% last week to only 17%, well below the 58% at this point YA.  Next support for Chicago Mch-24 is at last month’s low of $5.73 ¼.  New contract lows for new crop MGEX contracts. 

US Wheat Ending Stocks 2.8.24

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