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Ag Market View for Jan 25

Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat traded higher led by nearby old crop. US stocks were lower. US Dollar was higher.

SOYBEANS

Soybean traded higher trying to get back some of last week’s losses and was led by nearby. Strengthening old crop new crop spreads could indicate tighter US 2020/21 US supplies. Weekly US soybean exports were near 2.0 mmt versus 1,000-2,100 expected and 2.0 last week. This was higher than expected. US season to date exports are near 45.3 mmt versus 25.2 last year. USDA goal is 60.7 mmt versus 45.7 last year. Some could see final exports closer to 62.0. This plus a slightly higher crush could drop US carryout below 100 mil bu. SH is back near the 20 day moving average of 13.50. Fridays high was 13.67. Trade back above Fridays highs could offer a positive picture to what was a negative chart formation. Brazil 2021 soybean harvest is slow. Brazil vessel line up is near 6.0 mmt. This could increase t 10-12 mmt by mid Feb. Some feel lack of Feb Brazil exports could increase demand for US soybeans.

 March soybean futures chart

CORN

Corn futures traded higher trying to make back some of last weeks loses and led by the nearby. Higher old crop trade versus new crop could suggest tighter US supplies. Managed funds are net buyers of 7,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 311,000 Corn contracts. Weekly US corn exports were near 1.4 mmt versus 900 – 1,150 expected and 876 last week. This was higher than expected. US season to date exports are near 18.7 mmt versus 10.1 last year. USDA goal is 64.8 mmt versus 45.1 last year. Some could see final exports closer to 69.8. CH traded back above 5.00 and the 20 day moving average. Fridays high was near 5.22. Key to price direction in 2021 may depend upon US planted acres, weather/yield and final demand. Weather watchers still trying to figure out 2021 north hemisphere weather. Some look for ok US spring but summer could turn warmer and drier especially west Midwest. This could also be true for Russia. All depends upon La Nina. Most look for US corn acres to be near 93.0, yield of 181.0, crop of 15,390 and carryout near 1,215.

March corn futures chart

 WHEAT

Wheat futures continues to follow the leader. Corn and soybean futures traded higher and tried to make back some of last weeks loses. Wheat futures followed. Much of the buying was the nearby March. WH is near 6.49. WN is near 6.33. KWH is near 6.27. KWN is near 6.28. There has been an increase in domestic flour buyers adding to basis and futures coverage. One weather watchers today reported NOAA reports a big increase in La Nina would could suggest a drier and warmer US and Russia spring and summer. US 2021 all wheat crops could be near 1,860 mil bu with carryout near 735. Key will be weather and if yields reach that high. Weekly US wheat exports were near 524 mmt versus 200-400 expected and 276 last week. This was higher than expected. US season to date exports are near 16.1 mmt versus 16.2 last year. USDA goal is 26.8 mmt versus 26.2 last year. Some could see final exports closer to 27.1.

March Kansas City wheat futures chart

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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