Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Ag Market View for Jan 3.24

CORN

Prices are steady to $.01 higher at midday recovering after old crop futures established fresh contract lows in early trade.  The next major support for Mch-24 is $4.47, the spot low in early Dec-23 on the weekly chart.  Improved weather and crop prospects in South America continue to weigh on commodity valuations.  Corn grind for the production of ethanol at 455 mil. bu. in Nov-23, was above the Ave. trade estimate of 451 mil., however within the range of estimates.  In the first 3 months of the 2023/24 MY corn usage has reached 1.345 bil. bu. up 5% from YA vs. the current USDA forecast of up 3%.   Tomorrow’s EIA report at 10 AM CST will likely show a seasonal drop in production, well below the 1,107 pbd pace from the previous week.  With the recent sell-off US corn prices are below SA origin thru April-24.    

Grain Silos

SOYBEANS

With the exception of Jan-24 beans the soy complex was higher across the board.  Deferred bean prices were $.03 – $.05 higher, meal was steady to up $2, while oil was 25 – 35 higher.  Mch-24 beans briefly traded below yesterday’s lows before recovering.  Still a gap on the charts from yesterday open between $12.90 ¾ – $12.96 ¾.  Next resistance for Mch-24 oil is the 50 day MA at 50.39.  Above average rainfall is expected across central and northern growing regions of Brazil into midmonth helping restore soil moisture following months of drought conditions.  Weather in much of southern Brazil and Argentina is expected to remain favorable with a mix of sunshine and rain over the next week to 10 days.  Census crush for Nov-23 at just over 200 mil. bu. was in line with expectations.  In the 1st 3 months of the 2023/24 MY cumulative crush has reached 576 mil. bu. up 4% form YA, in line with the current USDA forecast of 2.30 bil. bu.  Soybean oil stocks rose for the 1st time in 7 months to 1.592 bil. lbs. however fell short of the average trade est. of 1.657 bil.  The stocks data suggests stronger than expected bean oil usage in Nov-23.   Spot margins were able to perk up a bit today, up $.12 ½ to $.97 ¾ bu.  

WHEAT

Prices were $.04 – $.08 lower across all three classes today in 2 sided trade.  Mch-24 Chicago fell back below the $6.00 level on an intraday basis, however remains near the midpoint of the Nov-Dec range.  Mch-24 KC slipped to a fresh 1 month low.  Several states released updated crop ratings as of the end of 2023.  Improved conditions were seen in KS, OK, TX and SD, with lower ratings in CO, MT and NE.  So far markets are shrugging off forecasts for an artic blast across wheat areas of Northern Ukraine and Russia by late next week.  Taiwan issued a tender seeking 83k mt of US milling wheat for Mch-24 shipment.  India’s Govt. maintains stockpiles of wheat will hold above threshold levels of 7.5 mmt by April, despite Jan 1 stocks at a 7 year low of 16.5 mmt.    

See more market commentary here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started