Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.05 – $.06 today as spot futures continue to carve out fresh contract lows. Next support for Mch-24 is $4.47, the December low on the weekly chart. Last week Money managers were net sellers of nearly 20k contracts of corn extending their short position to just over 197k contracts. As a whole MM’s are short just over 318k contracts in the Ag. space, (corn, wheat, soy complex, livestock and cotton) their largest net short position since June-2020. Export inspections at 34 mil. bu. were at the high end of the range of estimates. YTD inspections at 504 mil. bu. are up 28% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 26%. Ukraine’s grain shipments since July-23 have reached 19.4 mmt, down 18% from YA. Their corn exports have reached 10.3 mmt, down 22%.
SOYBEANS
A late day rebound in soybean oil prices enabled the soy complex to carve out a mixed close. Beans were down $.07 – $.11 closing near the midpoint of the day’s range. Meal prices were steady to $2 lower, while oil was 10 – 25 higher. Mch-24 beans traded to a fresh 7 month low with next support at $12.23. Resistance is at a gap on the charts from last Tuesday’s open between $12.90 ¾ – $12.96 ¾. Mch-24 oil also slipped to 7 month low before recovering. Mch-24 meal held support above its Oct-23 low of $365.30. Spot board crush margins (Mch-24) improved $.11 to $.91 bu., still very near seasonal lows. Another round of heavy rains fell over the previous dry areas of NC and NE growing areas of Brazil and central Argentina over the weekend. Recent dryness and above normal temperatures across Parana, MGDS and Sao Paulo is expected to last until mid-week before better prospects for rain and cooler temperatures are expected. Last week MM’s were net sellers across the board in the soybean complex having sold just over 16k contract in both beans and meal, and just under 1k in oil In total MM’s are net short in the soy complex for the first time since June-2020. Export inspections at 25 mil. bu. were at the low end of the range of estimates. YTD inspections at 880 mil. bu. are down 21% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 12%. AgRural estimates Brazilian soybean harvest is still less than 1% complete.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago down $.15 – $.20 while KC and MGEX were $.07 – $.13 lower. Chicago Mch-24 is back below both its 50 and 100 day MA’s however held above last week’s low at $5.91 ¼. Mch-24 KC carved out a new 6 week low before recovering a bit. Extreme cold across the Canadian Prairies, US Plains and the Midwest isn’t expected to damage winter wheat crops as 2 separate storm systems will likely provide adequate snow coverage. Some areas across the northern plains however will need to be monitored. Similar situation across Western Russia and Eastern Europe. Last week MM’s were light sellers of just over 700 contracts of Chicago wheat while selling just over 3,400 in KC. Export inspections at 18 mil. bu. were above expectations. YTD inspections have reached 372 mil. down 16% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 4.5%. Roughly 9 mil. bu. were destined for China. Ukraine’s wheat exports since July-23 have reached 7.8 mmt, down 9% from YA. Jordan is tending for 120k mt of wheat for Mch-24 thru May-24 shipment. The tender deadline is Tues. Jan. 9th. IKAR reports Russia’s wheat export price at the end of last week was $244/mt, up $1 from the previous week. After today’s close Egypt’s GASC announced a tender for an undisclosed volume of wheat for Mch-24 shipment. The tender closes tomorrow.
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