Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower in 2 sided trade. Spreads were steady to slightly easier. Mch-26 futures slipped below its 100 day MA however have held support above its December low of $4.35 ½. The $4.35-$4.55 range remains intact. MM’s were net buyers of just over 55k contracts the week ended Dec. 23rd, flipping their position back to long 3k. We’d estimate selling since has likely flipped it back to short roughly 18k contracts. Exports remain strong with commitments up 31% YTD thru Dec. 18th vs. USDA forecast of up 12%. Corn used for the production of ethanol slipped to 472 mil. bu. in Nov-25, in line with expectations. In the Q1 of the 25/26 MY corn usage has reached 1.382 bil. bu., matching the YA total, while the USDA forecast is for a 3% increase.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the complex with beans down $.01-$.02, meal was off $3-$4 while oil was up 70-80 points. Bean spreads firmed while product spreads were mixed. Mch-26 beans fell to a fresh 2 ½ month low with next support at the October low of $10.28 ½. Mch-26 meal slipped to a 2 month low with next support at the Oct-26 low of $282.10. Mch-26 oil continues to consolidate between $.48-$.50 lbs. Deliveries against Jan-26 soybean slipped to 913 contracts while oil rose to 48. No deliveries against Jan-26 meal. Reported sales to China are just over 6 mmt, while actual sales are likely over 8 mmt. Combined biodiesel and renewable diesel capacity held steady in Oct-25 at 6.967 bil. gallons annually. Combined production for the month was also steady at 432 mil. gallons, matching the highest figure since Dec-24. Bean oil usage for the production of biofuels slipped to only 1.006 bil. lbs. down 18% YOY and the lowest for the month in 3 years. The USDA forecast for the 25/26 MY at 15.5 bil. lbs. is likely to be cut significantly in Jan. 12th WASDE. For the week ended Dec. 23rd MM’s were net sellers of just over 37k contracts of soybeans, 26k bean oil and nearly 13k meal. In the past 3 week’s MM’s have been net sellers of nearly 234k contracts across the soybean complex, by far the most ever over a 3 week stretch. MM’s were still long 110k soybeans while short 67k contracts of oil, the most since Aug-2024. Census crush in Nov-25 at 221 mil. bu. was at the low end of expectations, however within the range of guesses. Cumulative crush in the 1st 3 months of the 25/26 MY at 663 mil. are up 8.3% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 4.5%. Bean oil stocks surged 21% from Oct-25 to 2.164 bil. lbs, well above expectations and the highest since April-24.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from steady in CGO and KC to $.03 lower in MIAX. Mch-26 CGO traded into a new contract low however held support above $5.00. Mch-26 KC has held up better in recent weeks holding well above its contract low at $4.98 ¾. Spreads finished mixed and little changed. US winter wheat acres in drought rose 2% to 40%, vs. the 52 week high of 45%. Still no peace in Ukraine. SovEcon raised their Russian export forecast .4 mmt to 44.6 mmt. Russia exported 4.2 mmt in Dec-25, near a record high for the month, this after exporting a record 5.1 mmt in Nov-25. US export commitments are up 19% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Look for winter wheat acres to be down 1+ mil. in the Jan. 12th USDA report. In the week ended Dec. 23rd MM’s were net sellers of nearly 25k contracts of CGO wheat stretching their short position to 91,665 contracts, the highest in 2 months. MM’s were net buyers of under 1k contracts of each MIAX and KC wheat.
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