Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.03 ½ lower settling well off session lows. Nearby spreads firmed while new crop spreads weakened. For today at least Dec-25 rejected a close into new contract lows. Crop ratings improved 3% to 73% G/E vs. expectations of unchanged. Conditions improved in 10 states, declined in 7 while holding steady in 1. Overall ratings remain the highest since 2018. 8% of the crop is silking, below the 10% from YA and just above the 5-year Ave. of 6%. Mostly normal temperatures across the nation’s midsection in week 2 of the outlook poses little threat to corn during what’s likely to be the height of pollination. Yesterday’s stocks data showed 17.2% of last year’s crop was still in farmer storage. While below the 19.7% from YA it remains above the historical average of 16.4%. Ukraine’s July-24 thru June-25 corn exports totaled 22 mmt, down 25.6% YOY however in line with the USDA forecast. EU corn imports for the 24/25 MY totaled 19.6 mmt, just above YA at 18.9 mmt. Corn used for ethanol in May-25 at 449.4 mil. bu. was slightly above expectations.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed today with soybeans up less than $.01, meal was down another $2 while oil jumped a full penny. New crop bean spreads weakened, oil spreads firmed while meal spreads were flat. Aug-25 beans slipped to a 2 ½ month low before recovering. Nov-25 beans held LW’s low before recovering. Aug-25 meal reached a new contract low for 7 consecutive sessions. Spot board crush margins jumped $.09 to $1.59 bu. while bean oil PV reached 50%, nearing its all-time high just below 51%. New crop crush margins improved $.06 to $1.96 bu. The US Senate passed the Big Beautiful Bill where it now moves back to the US House. Republican leaders in the House appear confident the bill will pass and be on Pres. Trump’s desk by July 4th. The Senate version of the BBB looks to ban feedstock from outside North America used to produce biofuels. US weather remains mostly favorable for crop development looking forward into mid-July. Soybean ratings held at 66% G/E however there was a 1% shift from good to excellent. Ratings improved in 10 states, declined in 6 while holding steady in 2. 17% of the crop is blooming vs. 18% YA and the 5-year Ave. at 16%. 3% of the crop is setting pods. Yesterday’s EIA data showed biodiesel and RD production in April fell 4% to 354 mil. gallons and was down 16% YOY. Bean oil usage however was down only 1% to 829 mil. lbs. Bean oil accounted for 31.6% of the feedstocks used, the highest in 4 months. EU soybean imports for 24/25 at 14.27 mmt were up 8% YOY. Meal imports at 19.25 mmt were up 26%. Census soybean crush in May at 203.7 mil. bu. was slightly below expectations. Total crush over the first 9 months of the 24/25 MY have reached 1.845 bil. bu., up 5.9% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5.8%. To reach the current USDA est. of 2.420 bil. bu. crush in the June/Aug. Qtr. will need to reach 575 mil. bu. (191.7 per month) vs. 545 mil. YA.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.05-$.11 higher with CGO SRW futures leading the way. The rally in Sept-25 CGO was capped just below its 50 day MA resistance at $5.51 ¾. Better prospects for needed rain in week 2 for wheat areas in Argentina. Extreme heat will grip W. Europe for another day before shifting east. While scattered rains are likely, overall drought relief in Europe will not be very significant. Both spring and winter crops saw a 1% decline in G/E ratings to 53% and 48% respectively vs. expectations of no change. Winter harvest advanced more than expected to 37% complete, however still well below the 52% YA and 5-year Ave. of 42%. 38% of the spring wheat is headed, vs. 35% YA and the 5 year Ave. of 37%. Ukraine’s July/June wheat exports totaled 15.7 mmt, down 15% YOY however coming in just shy of the USDA forecast of 16 mmt. EU soft wheat imports for 24/25 totaled 20.2 mmt, down 35% YOY. Jordan reportedly bought 60 mmt of milling wheat at $255.50/mt CF, half of their tender volume.
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