Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. Some bought soybeans after 2 weeks US Midwest forecast calls for below normal rains and above normal temps. SU traded above Fridays high. Next resistance is 13.74. Weekly US soybean exports were 14 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,947 vs 2,137 ly USDA goal is 2,170 vs 2,261 ly. USDA could drop exports 50 mil bu if China buying is less than hoped. C IL soybean basis dropping due to slow demand. US Midwest could turn warmer and drier next week. 2nd week also looks warm and dry. Some fear this could drop final US soybean yield from USDA 51.5. Trade expects USDA to rate the US crop 60 pct G/E vs 61 last week.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher but off session highs. Fact Russia bombed Ukraine Odessa port raised talk of higher corn futures. Fact the port was not damaged and UN still feels the a Ukraine export deal is still good and Ukraine wants to export grain limited the upside. Some talk that these market are tough to trade given uncertainty of Ukraine war and grain exports or not, US Midwest weather pattern and US Central Bank raising rates to fight inflation. Weekly US corn exports were 28 mil bu. Season to date exports are 2,008 vs 2,426 ly. USDA goal is 2,450 vs 2,753 ly. USDA could drop exports 100 mil bu if export buying is less than hoped. US Midwest could turn warmer and drier next week. 2nd week also looks warm and dry. Some fear this could drop final US corn yield from USDA 177.0. Still, old time crop scout trip from Kansas City toward Ohio then toward Minneapolis found better than expected corn crop with high plant population. Trade expects USDA to rate the US crop 63 pct G/E vs 64 last week.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher but off session highs. WU ended near 7.70. Session high was 7.93. KWU ended near 8.38. Session high was 8.53. MWU ended near 8.84. Session high was 8.99. Is a War ever bullish? Weekly US wheat exports were 17 mil bu. Season to date exports are 95 vs 124 ly. USDA goal is 800 vs 804 ly. SRW basis firm on good domestic demand. HRW and HRS looking for demand. Trade expects USDA to rate the US HRS crop 71 pct G/E vs 71 last week. This weeks is annual US HRS crop tour. USDA est ND wheat yield at a record 51 bpa. Last year tour yield was 30 bpa vs final USDA yield of 33.5. US winter wheat harvest is est near 82 pct. Wheat futures still near season low on inflation and recession demand worries vs tightening of World wheat supplies.
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