Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.04 higher while spreads back off a touch. Dec-25 corn briefly pierced its 50 day MA at $4.41 before backing off. Recent strength has been driven by speculation Pres. Trump may announce progress on a trade deal with China that involves US Ag. products. Exports at 58 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 2.681 bil. are up 27% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. Today S&P Global raised their Brazilian production forecast 4 mmt to 142 mmt, vs. the USDA at 130. Census exports in May-25 at 287 mil. were up 22% YOY and were 18 mil. above the weekly inspections data. YTD census exports at 2.090 bil. would require exports June-Aug to only reach 560 mil. bu. vs. 626 mil. YA. The USDA also announced the sale of 150k tons (6 mil. bu.) of corn to an unknown buyer.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the complex today. Beans were $.01-$.02 higher, meal was steady to up $1 while oil backed up 35-45 points. Spreads across the complex were mostly weaker. Resistance for Aug-25 beans is at last month’s high of $10.82 ½, same resistance for Nov-25 is at $10.74 ¼. Aug-25 meal spiked to a 1 week high before backing up. Aug-25 oil rejected trade above yesterday’s high. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech in Des Moines this evening, on the Eve of Independence Day. It could be a very volatile Sunday night of trade. US weather remains non-threatening as temperatures roll back to normal levels for the middle of July, nearly ideal for pollinating corn. Rains over the next 7 days to favor the NW half of the US corn and soybean belt, lighter coverage in the SE half. Soybean sales at 26 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.835 bil. are up 12% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Soybean meal sales at 703k tons (306k–2024/25 MY, 397k–25/26) were well above expectations as global buyers responded to the lower price. Old crop commitments are up 11% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%. Bean oil sales at 11.8k tons (26 mil. lbs) were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 2.354 bil. lbs. represent 91% of the USDA forecast. The USDA also announced the sale of 226k mt (8.3 mil. bu.) of 24/25 beans to an unknown buyer and 195k tons of meal, mostly new crop, to an unknown buyer. Census exports in May-25 at 59 mil. were up 13% YOY and were 8 mil. above the weekly inspections data. YTD census exports at 1.683 bil. would require exports June-Aug to reach 167 mil. bu. same as YA.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.06-$.08 lower across the 3 classes today. Spreads also weakened. Sept-25 KC futures rejected trade above its 50 day MA. Better prospects for rain in week 2 of the outlook for wheat areas of Argentina. Much of Europe remains in a hot/dry pattern. Wheat sales at 21.5 mil. bu. were above expectations and a MY high. YTD commitments at 264 mil. bu. are up 4% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 1%. Commitments represent 32% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 29%. By class sales were HRS – 8.8 mil., HRW – 6.5 mil., white – 3.3 mil. and SRW – 3 mil. Census exports in May-25 at 80 mil. bu. bring cumulative year sales to 818 mil. vs. the USDA forecast of 825 mil. This 7 mil. bu. reduction brings 24/25 ending stocks up from 841 to 848 mil., very close to Monday’s stocks est. of 850 mil. Only 2 mil. bu. of tweaking needed. Winter and spring wheat acres in drought both increased 4% LW to 24% and 29% respectively.
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