Written Commentary
CORN
Prices plunged $.14-$.17 today as the near-term weather forecasts remain non-threatening. Until this changes prices will likely continue to seek out a level able to stimulate better export demand. New contract lows for Sept-24 while Dec-24 has fallen to a 3 ½ year low. CFTC data after the close today, delayed from Friday’s normal release. The range of estimates is from 65%-69%. I do not see the USDA changing their new crop yield forecast on Fri. keeping the US Ave. yield at 181 bpa. Export inspections at 40 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast. YTD inspections at 1.713 bil. are up 30% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 29%. The market was not impressed with the 136k mt sale announced to unknown. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest has reached 63%, well above the 49% from YA.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was sharply lower with beans down $.15-$.30 led by new crop, meal was $7-$11 lower while oil was down 40-60. Next support for Aug-24 beans is LW’s contract low at $11.29 ¾. Nov-24 beans have carved out new contracts lows. Aug-24 meal challenged support at its 100 day MA at $349.60. Support for Aug-24 oil is at $.48. As Hurricane Beryl has made landfall in East TX, it is expected to track NE this week carving out a narrow path of heavy precipitation from AK thru SE MO, Central IL and IN into Southern MI and NW OH. If realized this will provide relief to some dry areas that have emerged. Temperatures are expected to heat up in the NW corn belt, needed after flooding rainfall in June. Much of the central and ECB to experience seasonally mild temperatures this week. The range of estimates is from 65%-69%. Export inspections at 10 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and below the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast. YTD inspections at 1.537 bil. are down 16% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%.
WHEAT
Prices were $.15 – $.21 lower across all 3 classes today. Next support for Sept-24 Chicago is the June low at $5.56 ¾. Support for Sept-24 KC is the contract low at $5.52. Hot/dry conditions to continue in and around the Black Sea region from E. Ukraine, Southern Russia into western Kazakhstan. Export inspections at 12.5 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however slightly below the level needed to reach the USDA export forecast. YTD inspections at 64 mil. are up 14% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 11%.
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