Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.03 higher today in 2 sided trade. July-24 challenged and pretty much closed right at its 50/100 day MA resistance at $4.51 ¾. Longer term resistance at $4.75 ½ with Initial support is at LW’s low of $4.38 ¼. Resistance for Dec-24 corn is at the 100 day MA at $4.72 ¼. US weather this week will be mostly dry across much of the nation’s midsection. Some moderate rains are expected across the Great Lakes region and the southwest plains by midweek. More numerous storms expected across the NW corn belt this weekend. Last week money managers were net sellers of just over 79k contracts of corn, the most in a week since May-23. This extended their short position back out to 213k contracts. APK Inform forecasts Ukraine’s 2024 corn production at 26.7 mmt with exports reaching 21.3 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 27 mmt and exports of 24 mmt. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 2nd corn harvest has reached 10% in the center-south region as of June 6th, well above the 2% from YA and the highest since 2013. US export inspections at 53 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations and well above the 39 mil. bu. needed to reach the USDA export forecast. YTD inspections are up 26% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 29%.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mostly higher with beans steady in new crop while old crop was up $.06-$.09, meal was up $3-$7 also led by July-24, while oil was mixed. July-24 beans held support above LW’s low at $11.74 ¼. Resistance is at the 50/100 day MA’s near $12. July-24 oil held support above LW’s 43.03 low. Prices remain in a 42.50 – 46.00 range. Last week July-24 meal rejected trade below its 50 day MA with upside resistance at $390. Above normal temperatures are expected to build across the Midwest by late this week. In the short run this would be beneficial to crop development however exactly where the high pressure ridge rests by late this month will have great impact on July weather and global corn/soybean prices. Last week MM’s were net sellers of just over 45k contracts of beans, nearly 16k contracts of oil and 18k contracts of meal. In total the 79k contracts sold in the complex was the most in a week since Mch-23. China’s Ag Ministry reports their countries sow herd at 39.86 mil. head at the end of April, down .1% from March and 7% lower than YA. Malaysia’s Palm Oil board reports production rose 13.5% in May to 1.70 mil. mt, vs. expectations of 1.65 mmt. US export inspections at 8.5 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and well below the 14 mil. bu. needed to reach the USDA export forecast. YTD inspections are down 17% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%.
WHEAT
Prices plunged $.18-$.22 across all 3 classes today closing near session lows. July-24 Chicago has now retraced 68% of the rally from the Mch-24 low to the May high and has closed lower for 9 consecutive sessions. Next support is the 100 day MA at $6.03 ½. Its premium to July-24 corn closed at $1.56 bu.. down $.96 from its peak 2 weeks ago. July-24 KC held above the 50 day MA support at $6.43. July-24 MGEX dropped to a fresh 6 week violating support at the 100 day MA in the process. Last week MM’s were net sellers of just over 6k Chicago wheat, nearly 4k in KC, while buying nearly 2k in MGEX. IKAR reports Russian export price at the end of LW at $242/mt FOB down from $248 mt the previous week. SovEcon reports Russia exported 1.36 mmt of grain LW, up from .80 mmt the previous week, of which 1.2 mmt was wheat. APK Inform forecasts Ukraine’s 2024 wheat production at 20 mmt with exports reaching 12.7 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 21 mmt and exports of 14 mmt.
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