Written Commentary
CORN
Prices ranged from up $.02-$.05 with spot July the upside leader. Spreads firmed as the Goldman roll ends later this week. July-25 traded to a new 8 month low overnight before turning higher. Next support is $4.26 ½, the low in March on the weekly bar chart. Dec-25 corn held support at the May low at $4.34 ¼. Favorable conditions here in the US combined with growing production ideas in Brazil will likely limit the potential upside. A S. Korean feed group reportedly bought just over 200k mt of feed corn from SA origin for $234.60/mt CF. EU 2024/25 MY corn imports as of June 8th at 18.7 mmt are up 7% from YA. US corn conditions improved 2% to 71% G/E, at the high end of expectations. Conditions improved in 13 states while slipping in 5. Overall ratings are slightly above their historical Ave. and just below YA.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the soybean complex. Beans ranged from $.02 higher in spot July to down $.01 in new crop. Meal was also mixed with near contracts slightly higher. Oil was up 35-40 points. Spreads firmed across the complex. July soybeans have scored a daily high above the previous session’s high for the 6th consecutive session. Resistance is at the May high at $10.82 with MA support at $10.50 ½. Nov-25 beans held support at yesterday low while consolidating near its 50 and 100 day MA’s. July bean oil briefly traded above $.48 lb. before pulling back. Spot July meal remains stuck between $290-$300 per ton for 7 weeks. Spot board crush margins rebounded $.04 to $1.19 per bu. with bean oil PV recovering to 44.7%. Earlier today US Sec. of Commerce Lutnick stated trade discussions with China were “going well” as they began day 2 of their talks in London. As of this writing talks have paused for dinner. While details of these discussion aren’t clear, wire services are reporting negotiations have stalled over China’s near monopoly over critical minerals and rare earth magnets and US produced advanced AI chips. Soybeans plantings are hitting the home stretch at 90% complete, holding slightly above YA and 5-year Ave. Ratings improved 1% to 68% G/E, in line with expectations. Ratings improve in 8 states, declined in 8 while holding steady in 2. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reports May production at 1.77 mmt was slightly above expectations and up 5% from April-25. Exports at 1.39 mmt were above expectations leaving ending stocks at 1.99 mmt. While inventories were in line with expectations, they were also an 8 month high. EU soybean imports at 13.3 mmt are up 7% from YA. Meal imports at 18.2 mmt are up 25.5%.
WHEAT
Prices were $.07-$.10 lower across the 3 classes today. July-25 CGO sliced thru its 50 day MA and LW’s low. Next support is at $5.26 ¾. Next support for July-25 KC is at $5.23. July-25 MGEX held above support at the 50 day at $6.06 ¾. A day after SovEcon raised their 2025 Russian wheat production forecast 1.8 mmt to 82.8 mmt, today Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister stated they expect this year’s grain harvest to reach 135 mmt, up 4% from YA. EU 24/25 soft wheat exports at 19.5 mmt are down 33% from YA. US winter wheat conditions improved 2% to 54% G/E vs. expectations for no change. Spring wheat ratings also improved more than expected, up 3% to 53% G/E. WW harvest was slowed due to rains, advancing only 1% to 4% complete, the lowest in 4 years and below the historical average of 7%. Overall WW ratings are at their highest level since 2019. The USDA has raised their WW production forecast every year in the June report in the last decade.
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