Written Commentary
CORN
Prices closed $.01-$.03 higher rejecting trade into new contract lows while shrugging off lower trade across the energy markets. Spreads also firmed. Yesterday Pres. Trump stated that a peace deal with Iran was “now complete” which will reopen the Straits of Hormuz. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif said an official signing ceremony would take place in Swizerland on Friday. July-26 has held support above $4.05, a gap on the weekly chart from last Sept-26. Money managers were net sellers of just over 120k contracts in the most recent CFTC report, flipping their net position to short 5k contracts. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest advanced 4% to 8.4% compared to 5% YA. Export inspections at 64 mil. bu. were below expectations, however above the 60 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast. Last week’s inspections were revised up by 4 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 2.583 bil. are up 26% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 17 mil., Japan – 9 mil. while Korea, Taiwan and Spain all took 4-5 mil. each.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher with beans up $.02-$.06, meal was up $1 while bean oil was mixed ranging from 10 higher to 35 lower. Bean and oil spreads firmed while meal spreads were flat. July beans and meal both traded to a 4-month low while Nov. beans slipped to a 3-month low. Early trade saw July oil fall to a 7-week low. Crush margins slipped $.03 to $3.63 ½ bu. with bean oil PV holding steady at 55.2%. Money managers combined to sell nearly 165k contracts across the soybean complex, the most ever in a week, reducing their long position to 275k contracts. Export inspections at 19 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the 12 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast of 1.510 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.345 bil. are down 20% from YA in line with the USDA forecast. Egypt took 8 mil. bu. while Mexico took 5 mil. NOPA members processed just under 209 mil. bu. in May-26, coming in below the Ave. est. of 216 mil. however, within the range of guesses. While crush was up 8% from May-25, it was down 3 mil. bu. from April-26. Average daily crush at 6.735 mil. bu. was an 8-month low. Implied census crush at 215 mil. bu. would bring cumulative crush to 1.999 bil. bu. up 8.3% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 8.4%. Crush would need to Ave. 217 mil. bu. per month June through Aug. to reach the USDA. Bean oil stocks slipped to 1.735 bil. lbs., well below expectations and a 5-month low.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02 lower in MIAX to $.05 ½ higher in KC. CGO July-26 was up $.05 ¼ at $5.89 ¾ rejecting trade down to a 4-month low. KC July-26 surged late however held below LW’s high of $6.45. MIAX July-26 was off $.01 ¼ at $6.17, recovering late after trading to a 4-month low. Money managers were net sellers of 48k contracts across the three classes extending their net short position to 74k contracts. Export inspections at 12 mil. bu. were in line with expectations, however below the 15 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 20 mil. bu. are down 6% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 17%.
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