Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were mixed while closing within $.02 of unchanged with bear spreading noted. July-26 rejected its first attempt at trading above $4.20 since last week’s USDA updates. Support is at $4.05, a gap on the weekly chart from last Sept-26. Corn ratings improved 1% to 68% G/E, in line with expectations as there was a 1% shift from fair to good. Ratings improved in 8 states while declining in 10. Overall ratings are historically average for mid-June. Emergence at 94% is in line with YA and the 5-year Ave. of 93%. S&P Global is forecasting 2026 corn acres reached 96 mil., up from their preplant est. of 95.2 mil. and above the USDA planting intentions in March at 95.34 mil. EU 25/26 corn imports as June 14th at 17.22 mmt are down 9.75% from YA. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production rebound to 330 mil. gallons up from 326 last week.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with soybeans $.09-$.12 higher, meal was up $1-$2 higher while bean oil was down nearly $.01 ½ lbs. Bean and oil spreads weakened while meal spreads firmed. July and November beans both traded to a 2-week high with the Nov-26 contract closing right at its 100-day MA. Soybean prices flipped to close moderately higher on reports from cash connected sources that China’s Sinograin has inquired about US soybeans for late 2026, early 2027 shipment. As we mentioned in this AM comments US FOB offers have slipped to a slight discount to Brazil. July meal traded to a 4 ½ month low however held support above $300 before recovering. Despite the weakness, July oil held above yesterday’s low. Crush margins were pounded, down $.21 to $3.42 ½ with bean oil PV slipping to 54.5%. For now Chinese interest will likely be limited to state owned entities given the 10% reciprocal tariff on US imports. Plantings advanced 3% to 95% vs. the YA pace and 5-year Ave. of 93%. Emergence at 88% is above the 83% from YA and 5-year Ave. of 82%. Ratings improved 1% to 66% G/E. The ratings index improved to 81.8, slightly above the historical average. Oddly enough, ratings improved in only 6 states, declined in 11, while holding steady in 1. Ratings rose 7% in both IN and SD, while declining 8% in NE and down 7% in both LA and NC. EU soybean imports as of June 14th at 13.2 mmt are down 6% from YA. Their meal imports at 18.05 mmt are down 3.6%.
WHEAT
Prices range from $.06 lower in KC to $.06 higher in CGO. CGO July-26 briefly traded above $6.00 and its 100-day MA before closing at $5.96 up $.06 ¼. Early strength in KC July-26 fizzled out before challenging resistance at $6.45 while holding support at its 100-day MA. Winter wheat ratings rose 2% to 27% G/E vs. expectations of no change. 95% of the crop is headed vs. 92% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 91%. Harvest advanced more than expected to 25%, vs. only 9% YA and 5-year Ave. of 13%. There was a 1% decline in the crop rated poor/VP, down to 45%. Overall ratings are still the lowest in 20 years for mid-June. Spring wheat ratings improved another 3% to 55% G/E, slightly better than expected and are just below the 57% G/E from YA. Emergence at 95% is above YA at 88% and the 5-year Ave. of 89%. EU soft wheat imports as of June 14th at 22.4 mmt are up 7% YOY.
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