Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.06-$.07 lower today with new contract lows all around. Next support for spot July is at $3.99, the low from last fall on the weekly chart. Late yesterday AgroConsults raised their forecast for Brazil’s 2nd corn crop 10 mmt to 123 mmt, upping their total corn estimate to a massive 150 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 130 mmt. This would far exceed Brazil’s previous record production which the USDA pegs at 137 mmt from 2 years ago. If Brazil’s crop is anywhere near 150 mmt, US exports for the 25/26 MY at 2.675 bil. are likely too high. Brazil’s Govt. approved an energy policy raising their mandated ethanol blend in gasoline from 27% to 30%, however this additional usage would likely only put a dent in the added corn supplies. Good demand for US corn and tight global supplies is viewed as old news as US and Brazil crop estimates continue to grow. US ethanol production slipped to 318 mil. gallons LW, down from 326 mil. the previous week, however up 3.6% YOY. Production was below expectations, however above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage est. for a 4th consecutive week. Ethanol stocks inched up to 24.4 mil. barrels, in line with expectations and just above the 23.4 mb YA. Implied gasoline usage LW jumped 4.2% to 9.688 tbd and was up 8% YOY. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 25-60 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex today with beans down $.18-$.22 closing near session lows. Meal was off $4-$5 while oil was 30-35 points lower in choppy 2 sided trade. Bean spreads weakened while product spreads were mixed. July-25 beans closed into 2 ½ month lows with next support at the April low of $9.85. Nov-25 managed to hold above its June low at $10.15 ¼. The range for July-25 oil was very similar to yesterday’s. New contract low for July-25 meal for a 4th consecutive session with the spot contract falling to a 9 year low. Spot board crush margins actually improved $.06 to $1.52 bu. with bean oil PV improving to 48.4%. New crop crush margins bounced $.05 to $1.96 ½. Bu. US weather remains mostly favorable as rains continue to provide drought relief across key growing areas of NE, S. IA and N. IL. Extended forecasts show milder temperatures and ample moisture across a vast majority of the nation’s midsection looking out into the first full week of July. The Reuters survey shows traders expect soybean acres to increase about 160k from the March intentions to 83.655 mil. acres. June 1st stocks are expected at 980 mil. bu. slightly above the 970 mil. from YA. Brazil’s energy council also approved raising the biodiesel blending mandate to 15% from 14%. Market is still awaiting clarity on small refinery exemptions and progress on trade talks with China. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 8-28 mil. bu. for soybeans, 100-600k tons of meal and -10 – 30k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices were $.07-$.14 lower across the 3 classes today carving out its 4th consecutive lower close. Support for July CGO is at June low at $5.22 ¼. For July-25 KC support is at $5.17 ¾. Wheat areas in Argentina are in need of rain, while S. Brazil remains in a wetter than normal pattern. Hot/dry conditions will continue to impact W. Europe for at least another week. The Reuters survey shows traders expect all wheat acres to increase 88k from March intentions to 45.438 mil with gains coming from Spring wheat and durum. A modest drop is expected for winter wheat. June 1 stocks, ending stocks for the 24/25 MY are expected to rise 20% from YA to 836 mil. bu., however slightly below the current USDA forecast of 841 mil. Bangladesh reportedly paid $275/mt CF for 50k mt of wheat for Aug. shipment. SovEcon raised their 2025 Russian grain production forecast to 129.5 mmt. Of this total, 83 mmt is wheat, in line with the USDA est. Export sales are expected to range from 12-22 mil. bu.
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