Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans were lower. SU dropped 19 cents to 14.76. CN is near 16.75. Lack of new US sales to China and slow weekly export sales offered resistance. USDA data was neutral to July beans. Soymeal continued to gain on soyoil. Concern about global demand for food limited new buying. Another July 4 holiday weekend ahead. Short term US Midwest maps have rain in north plains and Midwest early next week with warmer temps next week. 2-5 week weather maps hint of normal Midwest rains and normal to above temps. USDA estimated US June 1 soybean stocks at 971 mil bu and in line with trade est. 34 pct of the crop is on farm vs 28 ly. Farmer still has some old crop bushels to sell. 2022 soybean acres were 88.3 mil vs 90.4 expected. This puts more pressure on weather and yield to grow USDA 4,640 mil bu crop. Weekly US soybean export sales were -4 mil bu old crop and only 5 mil bu new. US total export commit is 2,208 vs 2,272 ly. USDA goal is 2,179 vs 2,261 ly.
CORN
USDA report failed to wet the bulls appetite. Key now is if it rains across the Midwest early next week. CN is near 7.54. CU is down 30 cents and near 6.34. CZ is near 6.22. Crude was lower. Gold, silver and copper are lower. Glad trade feels World 2022 crops are “made”. Managed funds have been sellers of 9,000 corn. We estimate Managed funds to be net long 231,000 corn. Another July 4 holiday weekend ahead. Short term US Midwest maps have rain in north plains and Midwest early next week with warmer temps next week. 2-5 week weather maps hint of normal Midwest rains and normal to above temps. USDA estimated US June 1 corn stocks at 4,346 mil bu and in line with trade est. 49 pct of the crop is on farm vs 42 ly. Farmer still has some old crop bushels to sell. 2022 corn acres were 89.9 mil vs 89.9 expected. Weather is now key if we grow USDA 14,460 mil bu crop. Weekly US corn export sales were only 3 mil bu old crop and only 4 mil bu new. US total export commit is 2,378 vs 2,737ly. USDA goal is 2,450 vs 2,753 ly. CU is now down testing the 200 DMA which we have not traded below since 2020.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended sharply lower. Most commodities were lower on concern that World Central Bank leaders will continue to fight inflation even if it pushes countries into a recession. There is already data suggesting that US consumers have reduced ppending. Consumer confidence is also dropping. USDA estimated US June 1 wheat stocks at 659 mil bu and in line with trade est. 2022 US all wheat acres were 47.1 mil vs 47.0 expected. Spring wheat was 11.1 vs 10.8 expected. Key is now demand with much of US wheat heading for storage with carries in the market. Weekly US wheat export sales were 18 mil bu. US total export commit is 212 vs 235 ly. USDA goal is 775 vs 805 ly. There was talk that Russia announced 7 mmt of Ukraine grain was shipped. Some feel this was in Russia vessel and grain Russia may have stolen from Ukraine. There is word of no buyers for the grain. Dry US weather should help speed up US HRW harvest. US HRS crop conditions are improving. After some needed rains most of EU will be dry next week.
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