Written Commentary
CORN
Prices finished $.01 lower in choppy 2 sided trade. Inside trade for July-24 corn. Near term resistance is at the 50 and 100 MA’s, currently $4.52 ½ with support at the April low of $4.35 ¾. Dec-24 carved out a fresh 6 week low however held above the April low at $4.59 ½. First resistance is at the 100 day MA at $4.73. Most of Brazil and Argentina will be dry for the next week to 10 days allowing harvest to accelerate. The drought in Mexico will likely only deepen into mid-June. Corn plantings at 91% complete were in line with expectations. Based off March intentions and today’s progress report their remains 1.2 mil. acres left to plant in IL and .9 mil. in IA. 75% of the crop was rated G/E, in line with our expectations however above the Ave. trade guess of 70%. The crop condition index at 83.5 matches the highest for the first week in June since 2020. A South Korean Feed group reportedly purchased 133k mt of SA or South African feed corn for Oct-24 shipment. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production last week was in a range from 1,068 – 1,073 tbd vs. 1,068 tbd the previous week. EU corn imports since last July have reached 17.1 mmt, down 32% YOY.
SOYBEANS
Prices finished lower across the complex with beans down $.05 – $.08, oil was 55 lower, while meal was down $2 – $4. Next support for July-24 beans is the April low at $11.45 ¾. Resistance just above the $12 level at the 50 and 100 day MA’s. July-24 oil has fallen back to the lower end of its 42.50 – 46.00 range. July-24 meal violated support at its 50 day MA at $355.70. Next support is the 100 day MA at $351.30. Spot board crush margins were pounded today, down $.10 to $.82 bu. matching a 3 month low. BO PV held at 38%. Today’s forecast is a bit dryer than recent days with only scattered .25 – .75” rains expected for the nation’s midsection thru the end of the week. Overall temperatures to remain seasonally mild into mid-month. Soybean plantings at 78% were in line with expectations. Progress remains below YA pace of 89% and just ahead of the 5-year Ave. of 73%. 55% of the crop has emerged, vs. 69% YA and 5-year Ave. of 52%. Emater lowered their RGDS production forecast to 19.53 mmt, down 2.7 mmt from their previous forecast due to flooding. Celeres pegged RGDS flood damage to 1.8 mmt while reducing their production forecast to 148.4 mmt, in line with Conab, however well below the USDA est. of 154 mmt. EU soybean imports since July-23 have reached 11.9 mmt, down 1.5% from YA. Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his soybean acreage forecast 300k acres to 86.8 mil. while dropping corn 500k acres to 89.5 mil. on delayed plantings in the WCB.
WHEAT
Prices were $.10 – $.14 lower across all 3 classes today in choppy 2 sided trade. Support for July-24 Chicago rest at $6.50. Support for KC July-24 at $6.60. Egypt’s GASC reportedly bought 470k mt of wheat, 180k from Romania, 120k each from France and Ukraine and 50k from Bulgaria. Prices ranged from $269/mt FOB, Ukraine, to $284/mt FOB from Bulgaria. Algeria is believed to have purchased 800k mt of milling wheat with most sourced from the Black Sea region. Price is believed to be around $279 – $280/mt CF. Jordan passed on their 120k mt tender citing prices were too high. Heaviest rains this week are expected across SE plains and the delta region. Forecasts remain dry with above normal temperatures for Southern Russia and surrounding areas. Winter wheat conditions improved 1% to 49% G/E in line with expectations. With the modest increase the CC index rose to 78.3, the highest since 2021. Harvest is reported at 6% complete vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 3%. Spring wheat plantings advanced to 94%, just ahead of YA 5-year Ave. 74% of the crop is rated G/E above expectations and well above the 64% from YA.
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