Ag Market View for June 9
Soybeans traded lower. Funds have been net sellers of 3,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal and buyers of 2,000 soyoil. Historically, corn and soybean futures tend to make tops on June 12. Fact USDA did not announce another new US soybean sale to unknown or China is offering resistance to soybeans. USDA rated the US soybean crop 72 pct good/ex. Best crops are in the West Midwest. Lower rated crops are in the east and Delta. Some estimate that only 8 pct of the crop is below trend yield, 43 pct is at trend and 42 pct is above trend yield. This suggest a yield near 51.0 versus USDA 49.8. Oil World estimated World Sep-May soybean exports near a record 121.6 mmt versus 106.3 last year. Brazil exports were a record 66.0 mmt versus 53.8 last year. China imports were 72.4 mmt versus 58.4 last year. Some hope this increase in China demand will suggest they will continue to buy US. CONAB est Brazil soybean crop near 120.4 mmt versus USDA 124.0.
Corn traded lower. Funds have been net sellers of 6,000 corn. Historically, corn futures tend to make tops on June 12. US Tropical storm is expected to bring rains to AR, MO, IA, W IL, MN and WI. IN and OH and plains could miss the rains. Drier and cooler Midwest temps are forecasted for the rest of this week. This should be ideal for US summer crops. Extended outlook calls for below normal rains and above normal temps. South Russia and South Ukraine weather forecast is drier. USDA rated the US corn crop 75 pct good/ex. Best crops are in the West Midwest. Lower rated crops are in the east. Some estimate that only 5 pct of the crop is below trend yield, 38 pct is at trend and 47 pct is above trend yield. This suggest a yield near 179.5 versus USDA 178.5. Weekly US ethanol production is expected to show an increase from last week. Stocks should also be lower. Production is still well below pre virus levels. Drop in ethanol demand is expected to increase US 2091/20 carryout on Thursday’s USDA report. CONAB est Brazil corn crop near 101.0 mmt versus USDA 101.0. South Americas corn prices remains a discount to US and could reduce demand for US corn. Increase US beef and pork supply and slower exports is weighing on meat futures.
Wheat futures traded lower. Advancing US winter wheat harvest and fact Black Sea harvest is also approaching soon weighed on Wheat futures. Some feel Black Sea and Europe crops might be lower than USDA estimate and last year but higher Australia supply and slower export demand could offset the lower US and Black Sea crops. Russia nearby wheat prices remain strong due to tight old crop supply. USDA rated the US winter wheat crop 51 pct good/ex. Best crop are in WA, OH, SD and IN. lowest rated crops are in CO, TX, OK, MO and OR. USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 82 percent good/ex. Trade estimates US 2020/21 wheat carryout near 897 mil bu versus USDA 909. Trade estimates World wheat 2020/21 end stocks at a record 307 mmt. Trade estimates US 2020 winter wheat crop near 1,238 mil bu versus 1,304 last year and total US crop near 1,850 versus 1,920 last year.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.