Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended slightly lower. Soymeal gained on soyoil. World financial Markets remain on edge given uncertainty over the Ukraine war. This week, SK has been finding support near the 20 day moving average which today is near 16.58. Resistance is near 17.00. Fact that 2022 South America soybean crop has dropped due to dry weather suggest US soybean and soymeal demand could increase. Concern that global inflation could slow food and fuel demand offers resistance. Some feel China and Germany may already be in a recession. News this week China will support its economy helped Crude, copper and soybeans. NOAA 90 day weather forecast called for above normal temps across most of the US Midwest. Below normal rains across SD, NE, KS and west Delta. Above normal rains in WI, IL, IN, MI and OH.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. Uncertainty over Ukraine War has reduced trade volume and limited new buying, This week, CK has been in a 7.26 to 7.67 range. 7.24 is 20 day moving average support. Corn is supported by talk of lower South America and potential lack of Ukraine corn exports. US Midwest rains may be offering resistance before US planting season. ProFarmer survey estimated US 2022 corn acres at 91.9 vs 93.4 last year and USDA Outlook estimate of 92.0. Combined US 2022 corn and soybean acres are estimated near 179.7 million versus 180.6 last year or down .9. High prices should increase acres. Total hay acres are near record low which reduces acres that could be switched to crops. Trade wants to see continued increase in new US corn export sales. This weeks were higher than expected with multiple countries buying, This could be the beginning of normal South America and Black Sea buyers could be switching to US. Talk that Ukraine farmers get 70 pct pf diesel fuel from Russia and Belarus raised concern if Ukraine will be able to plant the 2022 crops.
WHEAT
WK is down 37 cents and near 10.60. Range has been 10.55-11.06. KWK is down 24 cents and near 10.68. Range has been 10.55-10.97. MWK is down 20 cents and near 10.58. Range has been 10.50 to 10.87. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near 103.This week, WK has been in a wide 10.55 to 11.50 range. 10.55 is 20 day moving average support. Wheat is supported by talk of lower Black Sea exports. US south plains rains may be offering resistance before US growing season. This week, NOAA 30 and 90 day weather forecast calls for below normal rains and above normal temps across the US HRW south plains. Ongoing and ever changing headlines concerning the Ukraine war keeps wheat futures volume low and trade choppy. Lack of Black Sea export has raised concern about wheat supply shortages in poor countries. Domestic Russia flour prices are record high.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
