Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. USDA announced 132 mt US 2021/22 soybeans sold to China. Some feel China needs to buy 28-30 mmt June-Sep. Of the total, 14-15 mmt is Aug-Sep when Brazil supplies may be limited and US carryout is near 285 mil bu. There is talk that China may soon release 3.0-3.5 mmt soybeans from reserve. Trade est US 2022 soybean acres near 88.9 vs 87.2 ly and March 1 stocks at 1,888 mil bu vs 1,562 ly. SK dropped below Thursdays low but rebounded to near session high. SK support 16.75. Resistance 17.20. This week, one group est World 2021 soybean crop near 350 mmt vs 366 ly. Brazil 125 vs 138 and Argentina 42 vs 46. They also est World 2022 crop near a record 395 mmt. Brazil 147 and Argentina 53. US is est at 124 vs 120 ly. They est World 2022 rapeseed 79 mmt vs 71 ly. Sunflower seed 50 vs vs 57. FSU 28 vs 35.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CK ended near 7.53. Range was 7.42-7.55. Rally in Crude and on again off again concern about Ukraine war entering the 2nd month slowing Ukraine corn exports and reducing Ukraine 2022 crop offered support near key 20 day moving average. Big corn unknown is export demand. Slow pace has some lowering their US corn exports from 2,800 to 2,650. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report is next week. Trade looks for corn acres near 92.0 vs 93.4 ly and stocks near 7,865 vs 7,696 ly. Key could be pct on farm vs normal. Some could see higher final corn acres if US summer planting weather is favorable. CK tested 7.44 20 day moving average before bouncing higher. Resistance is 7.70. There was talk this week that high diesel prices may be switching grain movement from truck to rail. This has pushed railcar prices higher. US diesel prices have turned lower today. Fall barge freight is also high. Some feel this due to fertilizer barges waiting to unload. This week, one group est World 2021 corn crop near 1,204 mmt vs 1,123 ly. US 383 vs 358. Brazil 115 vs 87 and Argentina 50 vs 51. They also est World 2022 crop near 1,203 mmt. Brazil 128 and Argentina 54. US is est at 380 and China 274.
WHEAT
Wheat is wheat. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report is next week. Trade looks for wheat acres near 48.4 vs 46.7 ly and stocks near 1,019 vs 1,311 ly. US 2022 spring wheat acres are est near 11.8 versus 11.4 ly. WK traded below Thursday low near 10.80 before bouncing back over 11.00. WK still in 10.50-11.50 range. Rally in Crude and on again off again concern about Ukraine war entering the 2nd month slowing Ukraine wheat exports. Talk this week that Russia was exporting wheat to Turkey and Egypt offered resistance to wheat prices. Moisture in parts of US south plains HRW also offered resistance. There may be too much rain in US SRW. This week, one group est World 2021 wheat crop near 780 mmt vs 776 ly. EU 139 bs 126. FSU 133 VS 139.
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