Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.06-$.10 lower led by weakness in old crop. Spreads also weakened. May-25 cut right thru its 100 day MA support at $4.64 ¾. Next support is LW’s low at $4.42 ½. In Brazil much of the CS region along with Mato Grosso and MGDS will continue to see a favorable mix of sunshine and rain over the next 7-10 days, favorable for the development of their 2nd corn crop. Prices seem to be trying to find a level that stirs up additional export demand. Back and forth news on tariffs is not helping provide clarity. Ethanol production slipped to 1,062 tbd, or 312 mil. gallons, down from 321 mil. the previous week however still up 3.7% from YA. Production was below expectations. There was 106 mil. bu. used in the production process, or 15.2 mil. bu. per day, above the 14.9 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.50 bil. bu. In the MY to date there has been 2.865 bil. bu. used, or 15.24 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.562 bil. Implied gasoline usage jumped 3.4% LW to 9.182 tbd, which was also up 1.5% YOY. Corn stocks/use among global exporters was little changed in yesterday’s WASDE report holding at 7.6%, the lowest in 4 years. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 30-60 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans off $.09-$.11, meal was down $1-$3 while oil was 25 points lower. Bean spreads were weaker, meal spreads firmer while oil spreads were mixed. May-25 bean dipped back below $10 however rebounded to close back just above the psychological level. Next support is the March low at $9.91. May-25 meal dipped below $300 per ton filling a small gap in the process, however also rebounded into the close. May-25 oil fell to a fresh 2 month low with next support is the January low at $.40 lb. Spot board crush margins rebounded $.04 ½ to $1.18 ½ bu. with bean oil PV holding at 41%. In Argentina conditions are expected to shift back to a hot/dry pattern, favorable for harvest following a couple weeks of heavy rain in the Central and southern growing areas. Stats Canda projects 2025 canola acres at 21.65 mil., in line with expectations and just below YA at 22 mil. acres. Soybean acres are forecast to slip slightly to 5.635 mil. however just above expectations of 5.4 mil. Brazilian soybean basis levels have fallen in recent days, back out to a $.42 bu. discount to US Gulf FOB levels after being as narrow at $.15 late last week. Brazil is expected to export nearly 15.5 mmt in March up 4% from March-2024 and just shy of the all-time record of 15.7 mmt shipped in April-21 as more demand shifts to Brazil as trade tensions between US and China heat up. Global soybean stock/use among global exporters tightened up a bit in yesterday’s WASDE report slipping to 19.3%, near the midpoint of its range over the past 6 marketing years. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 12-28 mil. bu. for beans, 200-400k tons of meal and 40-75k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices closed mixed with KC up $.01 while CGO and MGEX were $.02-$.03 lower. All 3 classes were well off session lows. Several spreads in CGO futures made new lows today. The US appears to be shaping up for a warmer and wetter than normal 2nd half of March across much of the Midwest. Near term forecasts however still show a void of meaningful rain in the southern plains. Much above normal temperatures and periods of very high winds are expected thru the end of this week. In Ukraine a Russian missile strike at the port of Odesa reportedly killed 4 Syrian sailors loading a shipment of wheat. This comes a day after the US and Ukraine negotiated a 30 day cease fire agreement, a plan which has not yet been agreed to by Moscow. Pres. Trump has indicated at midday US officials are in contact with the Kremlin hoping a ceasefire can be agreed to soon. Stats Canada is forecasting 2025 all wheat acres a touch below 27.5 mil. above the 26.6 planted YA and just above the Ave. trade guess of 26.9 mil. Jordan passed on all 7 offers for their recent 120k mt tender for milling wheat. Tunisia is reportedly seeking 100k mt of optional origin milling wheat in a tender that expires tomorrow. Wheat stocks/use among global exporters jumped to 14.9% in yesterday’s WASDE report. While this is unchanged from YA, it remains at a multiyear low. Exports tomorrow are expected to range from 12-26 mil. bu.
Charts provided by USDA.
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