Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.05 higher in choppy two-sided trade. Spreads also firmed. US exports remain strong with YTD commitments up 32% from YA, vs. USDA forecast of up 15.5%. The BAGE reports Argentine corn harvest has reached 9.4% while holding their production forecast steady at 57 mmt. Huge range of estimates with USDA at 52 mmt while RGE is at 62 mmt. Conab lowered their Brazilian production forecast nearly .2 mmt to 138.3 mmt, roughly 1.5 below expectations however above the USDA forecast of 132 mmt. US corn acres in drought fell 5% LW to 46%. Obviously war headlines and/or news from Chinese trade talks this weekend in Paris will drive price direction Sunday night. By the end of March more attentions will shift to the month end stocks and acreage reports. Farmer surveys are typically completed in the first half of March, this year under more uncertainty than ever.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans down $.02-$.06, meal was steady to up $2 while oil closed flat. Spreads were steady to firmer all around. May-26 beans snapped back after trading as much as $.18 lower. May-26 meal had a outside day higher. Spot board crush margins recovered $.07 ½ today to $2.26 ½ while bean oil PV slipped to 51.1%. The BAGE reports Argentine soybean conditions improved 2% to 76% G/E while holding their production forecast unchanged at 48.5 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 48 mmt. Conab lowered their Brazilian production forecast .1 mmt to 177.85 mmt, 1.5 below expectations and compares to the USDA est. of 180 mmt. Yesterday US Treasury Sec. Bessent confirmed he and USTR Greer were meeting Sunday/Monday with Chinese trade officials in Paris, this ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting in Beijing later this month. Speculative buying is pushing MM’s length in the complex close to record levels. Wire services are reporting farmers have been active sellers on the price runup ahead of Spring plantings. Bulls remain hopeful for fresh Chinese purchases despite US Gulf FOB offers pushing out to $1.20-$1.50 over Brazil. News that Cargill has paused Brazilian shipments to China over changes to their inspection procedures has caused that gap to widen. US exports are down 19% YTD vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. US soybean acres in drought fell 6% to 47%. NOPA crush on Monday is expected to show members processed nearly 203 mil. bu. in Feb-26, down from 221.6 mil. in Jan-26 however well above the 177.9 mil. in Feb-25. Oil stocks are expected at 1.93 bil. lbs. just above the 1.90 in Jan-26 however well above the 1.5 bil. YA.
WHEAT
Prices jumped $.11-$.17 bu. as dry conditions in the SW plains combined with huge temperature swings forced an injection of weather premium. Powerful winds are expected to impact the nation’s midsection this weekend. Blizzard conditions and heavy snow potential for the upper Midwest. Only scattered precipitation for the northern plains and WCB. Dry in the SW plains with temperatures early next week expected to dip in the mid-teens as far south Kansas with no snow cover. Much above normal temperatures by late next week. Despite the surge, CGO May-26 held well below this week’s high at $6.41 ¾. KC May-26 is a bit closer to its recent high of $6.47 ½. YTD exports are up 12% while the USDA forecast is for a 9% increase. Russian exports in March are expected to reach 3.7 mmt, nearly double the 2.0 mmt shipped in Mch-25. US winter wheat acres in drought slipped 1% to 55% while spring wheat acres rose 2%.
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