Written Commentary
CORN
Prices recovered late settling $.02-$.03 higher. Spreads finished mixed after May/July traded out to a new low at $.10 per bu. May-25 held key support above LW’s low at $4.56 1/4. In Brazil mostly favorable condition in WC and SC growing regions, beneficial to the developing 2nd corn crop. In the US weekend weather brought a broad range of temperature swings across the nation’s midsection. Heavy rains and damaging storms in the SE. A mix of rain/snow across the Great Lakes region while blizzard conditions impacted parts of the E. Dakota’s and central MN. Export inspections at 65 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and the 2nd highest of the MY. They were also above the 47 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 2.450 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.211 bil. are up 33% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 7%. Largest takers were Mexico – 13.5, Japan – 12.5 mil. and Colombia – 7 mil. Still lean towards higher exports despite no change from the USDA this month. Last week money managers sold another 73k contracts of corn, reducing their long position to 146,541 contracts, their smallest position in 3 months. Index funds also sold just over 34k contracts. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd corn crop is 97% planted.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed and little changed today as beans settled within $.01 of unchanged, meal was down $1-$2 while oil rebounded closing 40-50 better. Spreads were in beans, firmer in meal while weaker in oil. Support for May-25 beans rests at LW’s low at $9.94. Early strength in meal was capped at the 50 day MA at $307.60. Spot board crush margins improved $.02 ½ to $1.17 per bu. while bean oil PV bumped up to 40.9%. Net drying will occur across much of Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil this week with better prospects for rain in week 2. The net drying will aid harvest efforts in Argentina. Export inspections at 24 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the 9 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 1.825 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.437 bil. are up 9% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 8%. China took just over 15 mil. Last week MM’s were net buyers of 20k beans, and just over 13k meal while selling 23.5k contracts of bean oil. They remain net short across the soybean complex with their short bean position down to 15.5k, nearly 14k in bean oil and down to 72k in meal. AgRural reports Brazil’s soybean harvest is 70% complete, up from 61% LW and ahead of the YA pace of 63%. NOPA crush in Feb-25 at only 177.9 mil. bu. was below the range of estimates. This compares to Jan-25 crush of 200.4 mil. and 186.2 mil. from Feb-24. Despite the much lower than expected crush, bean oil stocks rose to an 8 month high at of 1.503 bil. lbs. up 18% from Jan-25 however still below the 1.690 bil. lbs. from Feb-24. The Ave. estimate was for inventories to increase to 1.386 bil. Lbs.
WHEAT
Prices held gains of $.12-$.20 into the close led by strength in KC futures. All 3 classes jumped out to new highs for the month. Despite the strength nearby spreads in CGO traded to new lows. May-25 CGO closed just below its 50 and 100 day MA’s however MGEX closed just above these key technical levels. Conditions across the Southern plains were dry which combined with near record temperatures and high winds triggered dust storms, further depleting top soil moisture just as the winter wheat crop is set to break dormancy. Export inspections at 18 mil. bu. were above expectations however just below the 19 mil. needed per week to reach the revised USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 601 mil. up 18% from YA, in line with the USDA forecast. Last week MM’s were net buyers of 5k Chicago futures while selling 9.4k KC and 8.5k in MGEX. The MM short position in KC futures has swelled to an 11 month high at nearly 49k contracts. SovEcon at midday reports Russian wheat exports will continue to fall in Mch-25 as the Govt. seeks to cut domestic flour and bread prices low. While US winter wheat area in drought was only at 27% LW, it’s still double where it was a YA and on rise.
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