Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.05 lower today rebounding into the close while finishing the week with moistest gains. Old crop led the way lower as spreads weaken. May-25 closed back below its 100 day MA. Good rains across central and northern growing areas of Brazil should continue to support the development of their 2nd corn crop. The BAGE held their Argentine production est. unchanged at 49 mmt, vs. the USDA at 50 mmt. Harvest progress has reached nearly 14%. This afternoon’s CFTC report will likely show the MM long position back under 120k contracts, vs. 146.5k the previous week. The chart below illustrated the year-over-year change in acres from the previous growing season. COF as of Mch. 1st at 98% of YA was in line with expectations. Placements at only 82% of YA were well below expectations of 86% while marketings at 91% were slightly below expectations of 92%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower today with beans down $.02-$.04, meal was up $2-$3 while oil was down 50-70 points. Oil spreads weakened while meal spreads firmed, little change in bean spreads. May-25 beans failed to extend trade above yesterday’s high before slipping back in quiet 2 sided trade. A late bounce enable May-25 meal to close back above $300 ton. Inside day for May-25 oil as prices consolidate in the middle of a $.41-$.43 near term trading range. EPA data shows that 376 mil. D4 renewable blending credits (biodiesel) were generated in Feb-25, down from 486 mil. in Jan-25 and well below the 907 mil. in Dec-24 ahead of the expiration of the biodiesel blenders credit. The EPA blenders credit data is an early tell on renewable and biodiesel production figures. The EIA will release to official RD and biodiesel production figures from Jan-25 on Mch. 31st. With bean oil export commitments already just over 1.90 bil. lbs. vs. the USDA forecast of 1.80 bil. for the entire 24/25 MY look for additional demand shifts to exports. Argentina will see a few more days of net drying conditions, beneficial for corn and bean harvest, before an increase in rain activity early next week thru the end of March. The BAGE lowered their Argentine production forecast 1 mmt to 48.6 mmt, now just below the USDA forecast of 49 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices were little changed today however managed to muster up a slightly higher close in choppy 2 sided trade. KC futures were the upside leader (barely) finishing $.02 1/2 higher. Little to no precipitation for the TX and OK panhandles along with western KS and NE will lead to expanded drought readings for key winter wheat growing areas. Spreads were little changed. Inside day for May-25 CGO futures. Since midday May-25 KC did stray too far from its 50 day MA at $5.88. Turkey’s state grain board, TMO, has issued a tender to sell 50k mt of durum wheat with a deadline of Mch. 27th. Stocks represent 80% of the total usage from the first 3 quarters of the MY, also the highest in the last 4 years. With CGO July near $5.75 prices would appear very near historical value. 21/22 was an outlier to the upside driven by the outbreak of the Russian/Ukraine war. Perhaps growing dryness in the US southern plains or Black Sea region may cause a shift later in 2025 ?
Charts provided by QST.
>>See more market commentary here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
