Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.06 lower while spreads weakened. Overnight strength, tied to higher energy prices, flipped shortly after 6 AM CST when Pres. Trump ordered a halt to strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for 5 days amid “productive” talks. Headline to headline trading continues. The USDA announced a flash sale of 102k mt (4 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. Look for May-26 to hold in a $4.40-$4.80 range with energy prices likely to drive any directional breakout. Dec-26 stopped just shy of its March high of $4.98 ½ before pulling back. Cattle in US feedlots on March 1st at 11.55 mil. head were down .2% from YA, vs. expectations of down .7%. Placements at 1.61 mil. head were up 3.7% YOY vs. expectations of up only .3%. The MM long position increased 35.5k contracts to nearly 229k, the largest in 13 months. Export inspections at 67 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 1.755 bil. are up 38% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 18 mil., Japan – 11 mil. while Colombia took 7 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
rices stabilized near unchanged with beans $.02-$.06 higher, meal was down $1-$2 while oil was up 10-20 points. Bean spreads weakened while product spreads were mixed. Since the limit down trade last Monday, spot beans prices have held in a $.30 range. The USDA announced a flash sale of 161k mt (6 mil. bu.) of soybeans to Mexico. After reaching a fresh 3 ½ year high last week, spot board crush margins backed off a few more cents to $2.76 ½ bu. with bean oil PV ticking just over 50%. If neither happens, look for prices to retest $11 this Spring. Look for details of Pres. Trump’s delayed trip to Beijing to emerge this week. Hopeful we’ll get RVO and SRE’s clarity at the agricultural event at the White House on Friday. Earlier today EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated US biofuel blending quota’s would be announced before month end. The MM long position is beans fell 20K contracts to 202k. The MM long position in soybean oil at just over 122k is the 2nd largest ever reported, vs. the all-time high at 126.5k way back in Nov-2016. Export inspections at 40.5 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. YTD inspections at 1.072 bil. are down 27% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. China took 24 mil. while Egypt took 7 mil. AgRural estimates Brazil’s harvest has reached 68%. Over the weekend Brazil’s Ag. Ministry reported China has dropped their zero tolerance for policy for weed in soybean shipments.
WHEAT
Prices range from $.01 lower in MIAX to $.07 lower in CGO. CGO May-26 fell to a 2 week low with next support at the March low of $5.64 ½. KC May-26 recovered to close near the middle of the day’s range. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show above normal precipitation across the US plains, which would be of great benefit to the winter crop emerging from dormancy. Russia’s Ag. Ministry jacked up their export tax from 140.9 roubles/mt to 515.6 roubles for the period ending Mch. 31st. Export inspections at 17 mil. bu. were above expectations and just above the 16 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 732 mil. bu. are up 18% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast up 9%. European crop monitor group MARS projects 2026 EU soft wheat yields at 5.98 mt/HA, down 5% from YA. While the combined MM long position across the 3 classes of wheat is only 13k contracts, it’s the largest since Oct-22.
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