Written Commentary
CORN
Prices are $.02-$.07 lower today led by old crop. Spreads were also under pressure. Key support for May-25 rests at last week’s low at $4.55 ¼. Late season dryness in S. Brazil is leading to lower production estimates for this year’s crop. Favorable conditions across central and northern growing areas bode well for their 2nd crop corn development. Historically this report has tilted a bit friendly in corn over the past 25 years having closed higher 16 times (65%) including the past 4 years, while closing lower 9 times. Southern states are reporting planting progress with LA the clubhouse leader at 61%, TX is at 45%, MS 14% and AR 10%. All are slightly above their historical average. EU corn imports as of Mch. 23rd have reached 15.4 mmt, up 11.6% from YA. Dr. Micheal Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian production forecast 1 mmt to 122 mmt, well below the USDA at 126 mmt. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production range from 319-336 mil. gallons, vs. 325 mil. the previous week.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed today with beans steady to down $.05 led lower by old crop, meal was $1-$2.50 lower, while oil was up 15-25. Spreads were weaker across the complex. Spot May-25 beans traded below $10 for the first time in nearly 2 weeks, however settled just above this level. Fresh 3 week low in spot meal with next support at the March low at $291.30. May-25 oil remains in its $.41-$.43 trading range. Spot board crush margins bounced $.02 today to $1.13 bu. with bean oil reaching a 4 week high at 41.7%. Rain this week in the US is likely to be heavy across the Gulf coast and Delta region slowing planting operations as a result. The Midwest will see rains favor the central and ECB along with the Great lakes region. Lesser amounts for the WCB and even lighter totals in the far northern and SW plains. Temperatures across much of the WCB and southern plains to remain above to much above normal this week before weekend cooling. Historically the March report has been a coin toss for soybean prices, up 12 times in the past 25 years, down 13 times. Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian production forecast 1 mmt to 169 mmt, in line with the USDA. The Trump Administrations proposal to impose 25% tariffs on any country that imports oil from Venezuela could push China’s tariffs to 45, likely weighing on soybean valuations. EU soybean imports for 24/25 MY as of Mch. 23rd at 9.8 mmt are up 6.5% over YA. Meal imports at 13.6 mmt are up 27%.
WHEAT
Prices were $.04-$.09 lower across all 3 classes today with KC futures being the downside price leader despite continued dry conditions in the southern plains. All 3 classes fell to fresh 2-3 week lows. Occasional showers will likely bring modest relief to wheat growing areas around the Black Sea. Wire services are reporting that a partial cease fire in the Ukraine/Russian war has been reached. Historically the March report has a bit of a bullish tilt the past 25 years with higher closes 14 times, lower 10 times with 1 year unchanged. Jordan has reportedly bought 50k mt of optional origin wheat at $265/mt CF for Aug. shipment. Japan’s Ag. Ministry has tendered for nearly 120k mt of Canadian or US wheat for spring shipment. The offer deadline is this Thursday. SovEcon lowered their Russian wheat export forecast another 1.5 mmt to 40.7 mmt, well below the USDA forecast at 45 mmt. US winter wheat ratings improved 1% in KS to 49% G/E. There was a 3% improvement in TX, 6% in CO while OK saw ratings drop 9% to only 37% of the crop in G/E shape. EU soft wheat exports as of Mch. 23rd have reached 15.46 mmt, down 35% from YA.
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