Written Commentary
CORN
Prices ranged from steady to $.02 higher with bear spreading noted. Both May-26 and Dec-26 contracts continue to hold within Monday’s range. A Reuters poll shows analysts expected Mch. 1st stocks at 9.036 bil. bu. up from 8.147 YA. We are just above that at 9.074 bil. bu. Estimates range from 8.420 – 9.378 bil. Corn acres are expected to slip to 94.371 bil. down from 98.788 last year. We are at 93.75 mil. with the range of guesses 92.6 – 96 mil. Ethanol production LW rebounded to 328 mil. gallons, up from 321 mil. the previous week and up 6% YOY. Yesterday the EPA announced they will issue waiver’s to allow the sale of E-15 during the summer months to help offset higher gasoline prices. Export sales at 48 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and bring YTD commitments to 2.712 bil. bu. up 30% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Commitments represent 82% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 78%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 17 mil. and Colombia – 12.5 mil. The end of March USDA reports have been supportive for corn in recent years closing higher the past 5 and 65% of the years since 2000.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.02-$.03, meal was $1-$2 higher while oil is up just under $.01 lb. Spreads were mixed. Both May-26 and Nov-26 beans traded into new highs for the week. May-26 meal recovered after trading into new lows for the week. May-26 oil stretched out to a 2 week high. We estimate MM are holding a record long position in bean oil at 146k contracts. Spot board crush margins jumped $.13 today to $2.83 bu. with bean oil PV recovering to 51.4%. Tomorrow the EPA is expected to announce their long awaited policies on US biofuel blending quota’s and SRE’s in Washington. The working range for mandated green diesel blending has been 5.3-5.6 bil. gallons annually vs. 3.35 bil. in 2025. Also look for the Trump Admin. attempt to reallocate 75% of the SRE’s back onto Big Oil. The Reuters poll shows analysts expected Mch. 1st stocks at 2.063 bil. bu. up from 1.911 YA. We are just above that at 2.116 bil. with estimates ranging from 1.880 – 2.125 bil. Bean acres are expected to jump to 85.55 bil. up from 81.215 YA. We are at 85.5 mil. with the range of guesses 84.25–86.5 mil. Export sales at 25 mil. were above expectations. YTD commitments at 1.369 bil. are down 18% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. Sales to China at 263k mt (260k switched from unknown) bring their total commitments to 11.24 mmt with another 1.8 mmt parked in unknown. Shipments to China are just over 8.5 mmt. Meal sales at 508k tons were above expectations and bring YTD commitments to 12.9 mt up 14% YOY vs. the USDA up 6%. Bean oil sales at 2 mil. lbs. brought commitments to 798 mil. lbs. down 60% YOY vs. USDA forecast of down 52%. Since 2000 July soybean prices have closed higher the day of the end of March USDA reports 12 times (46%) while lower 14 times.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.05 to $.09 higher with all 3 classes experiencing 2 sided trade. Spreads have also firmed. US winter wheat area in drought expanded 2% to 57%, a new 52 week high. Look for further expansion in drought readings next week. Eventually rains in the extended forecast will need to find a rain gauge in order for crop prospects to improve. Cash sources indicate Algeria has bought several hundred thousand tons of wheat priced near $272/mt CF. Precise and volume and prices not currently available. The Reuters poll shows analysts expected Mch. 1st stocks at 1.295 bil. bu. up from 1.237 YA. We are at 1.323 bil. with the range of est. at 1.050 – 1.334 bil. All wheat acres are expected to slip to 44.786 down from 45.328 YA. Winter wheat acres are expected to fall to 32.73 mil. vs. 33.153 YA. For WW we are at 32.6 mil. with a range of est. 31.9 to 33.4 mil. Export sales at 15 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and bring YTD commitments to 885 mil. bu. up 15% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Since 2000 July CGO futures have closed higher on end of March report day 15 times, or 58% of the time.
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