Written Commentary
Grains ended mixed. Headline trading continues due to uncertainty of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, EU, Japan and China and those countries retaliation. Trade estimates US 2025 corn, soybean and all wheat acres near 225.0 million versus 223.7 last year and highest since 2021. In 2021 prices dropped after the report but later rallied due to adverse US summer weather.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower and near 4.50. Much of the recent selling is due to better South America weather and average trade est for US 2025 corn acres and carryout higher than 2024. US and Brazil farmers have slowed cash sales which is supporting cash basis. Weekly US corn export sales were 41 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 2,089 mil bu vs 1,689 last year. USDA goal is 2,450 vs 2,292 ly. Sales were lower than expected. Fact Brazil and Argentina 2025 corn crop will be 8 mmt above last year could begin to slow new US sales.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher with SK near 10.15. Soyoil is higher and near 44 cents on talk tariffs could reduce China export of UCO to US and Canada exports of canola oil to US. Soymeal prices have also dropped below 300 on concern of too much supply. Weekly US soybean export sales were only 12 mil bu. Season to date commit is near 1,681 mil bu vs 1,482 last year. USDA goal is 1,825 vs 1,695 ly. Sales were lower than expected. Fact Brazil and Argentina 2025 soybean crop will be 17 mmt above last year could begin to slow new US sales. Some could see SN above 10.50 if US soybean acres are 4-5 million less than last year
WHEAT
WK is down to 5.32 on forecast of needed rains in Ukraine, Russia and US plains. Wheat futures are becoming oversold. KWK may have found support near 5.60. MWK may have found support near 5.80.Weekly US wheat export sales were only 3.7 mil bu. Season to date commit is near 767 mil bu vs 688 last year. USDA goal is 835 vs 707 ly. Sales were lower than expected. Fact USDA could estimate more March 1 wheat stocks than last year offers resistance to futures.
Charts provided by QST.
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