Ag Market View for May 17th
Nearby soybean traded unchanged. Nearby corn traded higher. New crop corn and soybeans traded lower. Wheat traded lower. Soyoil gained on soymeal.
Nearby soybean managed small gains. SX traded lower but ended at the midpoint of the daily range. Soybeans traded lower overnight on continued long liquidation after last week’s private estimate of higher final US 2021 corn and soybean acres that USDA March guess. Drop in US soybean export pace, lack of new China new crop buying and lower NOPA monthly soybean crush also offered resistance to soybeans and soymeal. Talk of higher 2021/22 US soyoil use and drop in monthly soyoil stocks helped soyoil futures. Weekly US soybean exports were near 11 mil bu versus 9 last week and 15 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,058 mil bu vs 1,275 last year. USDA goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 last year. Some feel fact US 2021 summer weather will need to be ideal offers support to SX near 13.80.
Corn futures traded mixed. CN rallied to near 6.52 on continued firm US domestic basis. Managed funds have been active sellers of futures after one private group estimated US 2021 corn acres could increase 5-6 million acres above USDA March guess. Some feel strong price rally before USDA May report could add acres. Most of the private increase was in the NW Midwest where soils are dry and summer forecast is for a potential drier than normal summer. US 2 week Midwest forecast calls for normal to above temps and normal rains. This should help planted crops. Weekly US corn exports were on the high side of guesses. Weekly US corn exports were near 74 mil bu vs 67 last week and 46 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,852 mil bu vs 1,038 last year. USDA goal is 2,775 vs 1,778 last year. There is a lot of debate now on US 2021/22 corn demand. Some feel that a Brazil corn crop below 90 mmt vs USDA 103 could add US corn exports. Still, 5-6 more US 2021 corn acres could add 800-900 mil bu and would be equal to 25 mmt of China corn imports.
Wheat traded lower. Improved forecast for rains across parts of Canada prairie and US north plains late this week weighed on Minneapolis wheat futures. Lower World wheat prices versus US export prices. Rains in Europe also offered resistance to Matif wheat futures despite low current stocks. Baltic wheat export prices remain lowest. There is concern about global wheat import demand due to slow recover of economies due to virus. Weekly US wheat exports were near 24 mil bu vs 21 last week and 18 last year. Season to date exports are 895 mil bu vs 879 last year. USDA goal including flour is 965 mil bu vs 965 last year. Trade looks for 86 pct of the US 2021 spring wheat planted vs 7- last week. USDA is expected to increase US 2021 winter wheat crop to 50 pct G/E vs 49 last week. Crop scouts will survey the KS wheat crop this week.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.