Written Commentary
CORN
Prices ranged from $.02 higher in old crop to $.02 lower in new crop. July jumped out to a new 2 week high with next resistance at the 50 day MA at $4.68 ¼. Fresh 3 week high for Dec. before pulling back closing just below its 100 day MA at $4.54 ½ . Pres. Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill that extends tax cuts from his first term narrowing passed a House vote this AM where it now goes to the Senate. The bill also eliminates taxes on tips and overtime while devoting billions to border security and a major crackdown on immigration. Exports at 56 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 2.491 bil. are up 28% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 13%. Pace analysis continues to suggest the USDA forecast is too low. Noted buyers were Japan – 15 mil., Mexico – 9 mil. and Colombia 10 mil. between old and new crop. Prices seems to have shrugged off an extremely high Brazilian prod. forecast from AgroConsults yesterday at 140 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 130 mmt. COF after tomorrow’s close. The BAGE reports Argentina harvest advanced only 2% LW to 39% while leaving their production forecast unchanged at 49 mmt. The IGC raised their 25/26 global corn production forecast by 3 mmt to 1.277 bil. mt, just above the USDA forecast of 1.265 bmt.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans $.02-$.05 higher led by old crop. Meal was $4-$5 higher while oil was down 60-70 points in choppy volatile trade. Bean spreads firmed while product spreads weakened. Outside day up for July-25 beans with next resistance at this month’s high of $10.82. Next resistance for Nov-25 is at $10.65 ½. The rebound in July-25 meal was capped near its 50 day MA resistance at $299.30, a technical level is hasn’t closed above since early Feb-25. The White House and OMB are expected to meet today to discuss the EPA proposed mandates and tax credits for biofuels. The biofuel industry remains hopeful the Trump Administration will raise RVO levels to 5.25 bil. gallons annually. Heavy rains in the southern Midwest and Delta region with flooding potential in areas of MO and N. Arkansas may prevent some of this year’s expected corn and soybean acres to be planted. Extended forecasts keep conditions cool in the east with above normal temperatures building in the west. Exports at 12 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.775 bil. are up 13% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Shipments are up 12%. Outstanding sales to China rest at 2.4 mil. with another 58 mil. to unknown. Soybean meal sales at 383k tons were at the high end of expectations. YTD commitments are up 9% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%. Soybean oil sales at 13.7k mt (30 mil. lbs.) were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 2.244 bil. lbs. represent 94% of the USDA forecast of 2.40 bil. lbs. The BAGE reports Argentina harvest advanced 9% LW to 74% complete while leaving their production forecast unchanged at 50 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices were mostly lower ranging from steady to down $.05 in choppy 2 sided trade across the 3 classes. Yesterday’s trade action showed a large O.I. drop in CGO futures at just over 10k contracts, suggesting early strength was largely speculative short covering. Open interest in KC was off only 1k contracts. Exports at 32 mil. bu. all new crop, were above expectations. Old crop commitments at 789 mil. bu. are up 13% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. New crop commitments have surged the past 2 weeks as global importers turned their attention to the lower US prices. Current commitments for new crop 25/26 MY at 154 mil. bu. are the highest in over a decade. Heavy rains in the southern Midwest will keep disease concerns elevated. A crop tour in IL found Ave. yield for Day 1 at 106 bpa, up from 104 bpa YA and well above the USDA forecast earlier this month at 85 bpa, (which the tour routinely has done) and the state record of 87 bpa in 2023. The tour also cited disease concerns given the wet conditions with more rains anticipated. The BAGE reports Argentina wheat plantings have reached 3.4% of the projected 6.7 mil. HA. The IGC held their 25/26 global wheat production forecast steady at 806 mmt, just below the USDA forecast of 808.5 mmt. Spring wheat acres in drought slipped 9% to 29% while WW acres in drought fell 2% to 21%.
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